Premier League 2025-2026: Man United vs Crystal Palace Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Man United

Home Team
60%
VS

Crystal Palace

Away Team
19%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Man United W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 3 - 2)

Crystal Palace W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man United

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.01
# Clean Sheets: 2

Crystal Palace

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.84
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Manchester United are favoured to take all three points at Old Trafford, with a 60.0% probability of a home win against Crystal Palace’s 19.0% chance, and a 21.0% likelihood of a draw. United come into this sitting 4th on 48 points, pushing for the Champions League places, while Palace are 13th with 35 points and looking to stay clear of the relegation battle. The game leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction backed at 50.0%.

Match Analysis

United’s last three league outings show a controlled, efficient side. They’ve taken seven points from nine – wins over Tottenham (2-0) and Everton (1-0) and a draw at West Ham (1-1). The Tottenham performance in particular – 23 shots to 7 and 7-0 on corners – underlines their ability to dominate at home. Over the last five matches they’re averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, with 1.83 expected goals (xG) for and 1.01 xG against, figures that point to a team largely on top of games and limiting the opposition. Crystal Palace’s form is more erratic: narrow wins over Wolves (1-0) and away at Brighton (1-0) are offset by a damaging 3-2 home defeat to Burnley. Those three games sum up their season – competitive, but liable to lapses, especially at the back. Across the last five, they average only 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with 1.308 xG for and 1.844 xG against, suggesting they are often second best in chance quality. Two clean sheets show they can dig in, but the underlying numbers tilt the balance towards United, particularly with Old Trafford advantage.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to an over 2.5 prediction at 50.0%, in what could be a game that opens up after the first goal. None of United’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 (totals of 1, 2 and 2 goals), while only one of Palace’s last three did – the 3-2 loss to Burnley – with the other two finishing 1-0. However, United’s average of 1.8 goals scored and Palace conceding 1.8 per game, combined with xG figures of 1.83 for United and 1.844 against Palace, suggest the chances are there for a higher-scoring encounter if finishing is sharper.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man United
Shots in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game sit at 24.98, and that shots prediction matches the recent evidence. United’s last three have seen combined shot totals of 23, 16 and 30, showing they can both restrict and overwhelm depending on the opponent. Palace’s matches have produced 26, 29 and 14 shots, with them regularly racking up attempts at home. When linked to United’s 1.83 xG and Palace’s 1.308 xG recently, the expected shots figure suggests a match with a steady stream of efforts rather than a cagey stalemate.

Final Prediction

United’s edge comes from stronger recent form, better underlying numbers at both ends, and the cushion of playing at Old Trafford, where they have shown they can control territory and chances. Palace’s defensive fragility, highlighted by 1.8 goals conceded per game over the last five, could be exposed if United sustain pressure. A key factor to watch will be how Palace cope with United’s attacking waves and set-piece volume, particularly in corners and second balls around the box.

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