Premier League 2025-2026: Man United vs Leeds Prediction - 13 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Man United

Home Team
69%
VS

Leeds

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 31 15 10 6 56 43 13 55
4 Aston Villa 31 16 6 9 42 37 5 54
5 Liverpool 31 14 7 10 50 42 8 49
6 Chelsea 31 13 9 9 53 38 15 48
7 Brentford 31 13 7 11 46 42 4 46
8 Everton 31 13 7 11 37 35 2 46
9 Fulham 31 13 5 13 43 44 -1 44
10 Brighton 31 11 10 10 41 37 4 43
11 Sunderland 31 11 10 10 32 36 -4 43
12 Newcastle 31 12 6 13 44 45 -1 42
13 Bournemouth 31 9 15 7 46 48 -2 42
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 31 7 12 12 37 48 -11 33
16 Nott'm Forest 31 8 8 15 31 43 -12 32
17 Tottenham 31 7 9 15 40 50 -10 30
18 West Ham 31 7 8 16 36 57 -21 29
19 Burnley 31 4 8 19 33 61 -28 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Man United D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 0)

Leeds D D L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man United

xG (avg) 2.22
xGA (avg) 0.86
Clean Sheets 1

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.55
xGA (avg) 1.66
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Man United are clear favourites at Old Trafford, with a 69.0% chance of taking all three points against a Leeds side given just a 14.0% probability of an upset (draw at 16.0%). The model points towards a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction, with a 54.0% likelihood of at least three goals in the game. United come into this as 3rd in the Premier League on 55 points, while Leeds sit 15th on 33 points and still glancing over their shoulders at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

United’s recent form has been solid if not spectacular: a 3-1 home win over Aston Villa was sandwiched between a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth and a 2-1 defeat away to Newcastle. Across those three games they’ve scored six and conceded five, showing attacking threat but also a defence that can be got at. The advanced metrics paint a stronger picture: over the last five matches they’re averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by 2.222 expected goals for and 0.858 expected goals against per game, suggesting they’re generally controlling matches and creating high-quality chances. Leeds, by contrast, are in a sticky patch. They haven’t scored in their last three league outings – 0-0 at home to Brentford, 0-0 at Crystal Palace and a 1-0 home defeat to Sunderland – despite often having the better of the play. In those three they’ve allowed just one goal yet taken only two points, reflecting the broader trend of their last five games: 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average, with xG figures of 1.548 for and 1.662 against. The numbers suggest a team that should be more dangerous going forward than their recent scorelines show, but one that still gives opponents enough chances to be punished.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to over 2.5 with a 54.0% probability, and that suits United’s profile. Two of their last three matches (3-1 vs Villa and 2-2 at Bournemouth) have gone over 2.5 goals, with only the 2-1 defeat at Newcastle just falling short. Leeds are trickier: all of their last three games have finished under 2.5, but their five-game averages of 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus xG tallies of 1.548 for and 1.662 against, point towards more open contests than their recent run of tight, low-scoring draws suggests. Given United’s attacking numbers and Leeds’ defensive openness over a longer sample, the over 2.5 prediction is justified.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Man United
Corners in last 5 matches
Leeds
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total sits at 9.51, which fits a match where both sides are expected to attack but not relentlessly. United’s last three games have produced 8, 12 and 6 total corners respectively, while Leeds’ have brought 8, 11 and 11, showing they regularly get into wide areas and force set-pieces. With United likely to press high at home and Leeds capable of sustained pressure – they had 9 corners in defeat to Sunderland and 6 against Brentford – a corners prediction around the 9–10 mark reflects two teams who build plenty of attacks down the flanks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man United
Shots in last 5 matches
Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.28 suggests a lively contest in and around both penalty areas. United’s last three outings saw combined shot counts of 30 at Bournemouth, 25 against Villa and 26 at Newcastle, underlining their willingness to shoot and their tendency to allow efforts at the other end. Leeds have also been involved in shot-heavy games: 20 total shots vs Brentford, 22 at Palace and 21 against Sunderland, and their recent xG numbers back up a side that creates and concedes opportunities. The shots prediction lines up well with both teams’ recent histories and the expectation that United’s superior attacking quality will turn those chances into goals.

Final Prediction

United’s edge lies in their sharper attack and stronger underlying numbers: 2.4 goals and 2.222 xG per game over their last five is a level Leeds have not matched. While Leeds have defended reasonably well in their last three, their failure to score in that period is a major concern against top-four opposition. The key factor to watch will be whether Leeds can convert their possession and shot volume into end product; if not, United’s ruthlessness in the final third should be the difference.

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