Premier League 2025-2026: Man United vs Liverpool Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Man United

Home Team
50%
VS

Liverpool

Away Team
27%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 10.6
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 34 22 7 5 64 26 38 73
2 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
3 Man United 34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 Liverpool 34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston Villa 34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 Fulham 34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 Everton 34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 Sunderland 34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46
13 Crystal Palace 33 11 10 12 36 39 -3 43
14 Newcastle 34 12 6 16 46 50 -4 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 34 10 9 15 41 45 -4 39
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 42 58 -16 36
18 Tottenham 34 8 10 16 43 53 -10 34
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 34 3 8 23 24 62 -38 17

Recent Trends

Man United W W L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 3 - 1)

Liverpool W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man United

xG (avg) 1.88
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 1

Liverpool

xG (avg) 2.00
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Manchester United are marginally favoured at Old Trafford, with a 50.0% chance of victory compared to Liverpool’s 27.0%, and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (64.0% probability) in what is effectively a top‑four shootout: United sit 3rd on 61 points, Liverpool 4th on 58.

Match Analysis

United come in with mixed form but important momentum: back‑to‑back wins over Brentford (2-1) and Chelsea (1-0) were followed by a setback against Leeds (1-2). Those three games underline a side capable of grinding results even when second best on the stats – as at Chelsea where they were out-shot 21-4 – but still vulnerable at the back. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with 1.884 expected goals for and 1.286 against, plus only one clean sheet, suggesting a team that creates regularly but still allows chances. Liverpool arrive on a three-game winning streak against Crystal Palace (3-1), Everton (2-1) and Fulham (2-0), a run that has dragged them firmly back into the Champions League places. Interestingly, the goals have slightly lagged behind their chance creation: just 1.2 goals per game over the last five matches, despite a healthy 1.998 xG on average, and 1.0 conceded from 1.434 xG against. That points to a side consistently getting into good positions, but not always finishing at the rate their build‑up play deserves.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 64.0% looks well backed by recent scorelines. Two of United’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Brentford, 1-2 vs Leeds), while the Chelsea trip was the exception. Liverpool mirror that pattern: wins over Palace (3-1) and Everton (2-1) cleared the line, with only the 2-0 against Fulham staying just under. With United averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Liverpool generating close to 2.0 xG per game, this fixture shapes up as more likely to be decided in attack than defence.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Man United
Corners in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 10.59, which fits a match between two front‑foot sides. United’s last three have produced 15, 8 and 15 corners respectively, while Liverpool’s have seen 13, 7 and 15, underlining how both teams’ attacking styles generate repeated set‑piece situations. A corners prediction around 10–11 therefore matches the recent trend of games where both press high and look to get shots and crosses off early.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man United
Shots in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.42 suggests a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. United’s last three outings have seen combined shot counts of 23, 25 and 35, while Liverpool’s have recorded 23, 24 and 37, consistently landing in the mid‑20s or higher. That aligns with the shots prediction and with both clubs’ xG numbers, which indicate regular shooting volume even when the scorelines stay relatively tight.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Man United wins by X goals. Negative = Liverpool wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Man United vs Liverpool with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Man United vs Liverpool
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has United -0.55, implying the home side are expected to edge it by roughly half a goal on average. United’s last three matches show a total goal difference of +1 (2-1, 1-0, 1-2), while Liverpool’s is +5 (3-1, 2-1, 2-0), so the expected spread leans more on home advantage and win probability than recent margins alone. With United slightly stronger in the table and Liverpool’s finishing not fully matching their xG, the model tilts narrowly towards the hosts.

Final Prediction

United’s edge comes from Old Trafford, slightly better recent scoring output and the balance of probabilities favouring them in tight games. Liverpool’s xG profile and three-game winning run mean they are more than capable of upsetting that script, but if United can turn their chance creation into another efficient performance, they are better placed to take control. The key factor to watch will be which attack is more clinical: the side that converts its early chances is likely to dictate both the result and the tone of this classic rivalry.

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