Premier League 2025-2026: Man United vs Nott'm Forest Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Man United

Home Team
62%
VS

Nott'm Forest

Away Team
19%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 26.7
Expected Spread: +0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 42 79
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 15 65
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 12 59
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 4 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 36 14 11 11 52 42 10 53
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 3 51
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46
14 Leeds 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 36 11 11 14 38 47 -9 44
16 Nott'm Forest 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21
20 Wolves 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Man United D W W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 2)

Nott'm Forest D W W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man United

xG (avg) 1.96
xGA (avg) 1.37
Clean Sheets 2

Nott'm Forest

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Manchester United are favoured to take all three points at Old Trafford, with a 62.0% probability of a home win against a Nottingham Forest side given a 19.0% chance, the same as the draw. United sit 3rd in the Premier League on 65 points, while Forest are 16th on 43 points and still looking over their shoulder at the drop. The numbers also lean towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% and both teams rated 60.0% likely to score.

Match Analysis

United come into this on a six‑point surge from their last three outings, beating Liverpool 3-2 and Brentford 2-1 at home before a 0-0 draw away at Sunderland. Those results fit the broader pattern of their last five games: 2.2 goals scored on average and 1.4 conceded, backed by solid underlying figures of 1.962 xG for and 1.374 xG against. Two clean sheets in that period suggest they can tighten up when required, especially at home. Forest, though 16th, arrive in quietly impressive form: a 1-1 draw with Newcastle, then emphatic away wins at Chelsea (3-1) and Sunderland (5-0). They’ve averaged 2.8 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded over their last five, but their xG profile (1.492 for, 1.666 against) hints that they may be overperforming in front of goal and riding their luck at the back. That contrast—Forest’s recent scoring burst against United’s more sustainable metrics—helps explain why the home side are still strongly fancied.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0%, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of United’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Liverpool, 2-1 vs Brentford), with only the 0-0 at Sunderland staying under. Forest have been even more goal-heavy: two of their last three also finished over 2.5 (3-1 at Chelsea, 5-0 at Sunderland), with only the 1-1 against Newcastle going under. With United averaging 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Forest at 2.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, plus both sets of xG suggesting chances at both ends, over 2.5 looks the more likely outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Man United
Corners in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.27 total corners, broadly in line with what these sides have produced recently. United’s last three have seen corner counts of 8-7, 3-2 and 7-8, all comfortably into double figures, reflecting a team that attacks in waves and concedes territory at times. Forest’s recent matches have been more mixed—2-1, 1-10 and 6-3—but their away wins at Chelsea and Sunderland still produced busy penalty-box action. Taken together, the predicted corners tally fits two teams willing to get shots and crosses off rather than sitting deep.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man United
Shots in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 26.7, which matches the way these sides are playing. United’s last three games featured 26, 31 and 23 total shots respectively, while Forest’s have seen 33, 27 and 24. Given United’s recent xG of 1.962 per match and Forest’s 1.492, a shots prediction in the high 20s feels realistic for two sides that are consistently working the opposition goalkeeper.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Man United wins by X goals. Negative = Nott'm Forest wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Man United vs Nott'm Forest with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Man United vs Nott'm Forest
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has United favoured by 0.84 goals, reflecting an expectation that they edge this by roughly a single strike. United’s last three have produced a combined goal difference of +4 (3-2, 2-1, 0-0), whereas Forest are +8 over the same stretch thanks largely to that 5-0 at Sunderland. Even so, with United stronger in the table and posting better defensive xG numbers than Forest’s 1.666 conceded per game, the expected spread aligns with the 62.0% home-win probability.

Final Prediction

United’s edge comes from a blend of home advantage, more reliable underlying numbers and a league position that underlines their greater consistency. Forest’s recent surge makes them dangerous, but their xG against suggests United will get chances. The key factor to watch is whether Forest’s attack can keep punching above its weight against a United side that, on the stats, should control both territory and shot quality.

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