Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs Brentford Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Newcastle

Home Team
70%
VS

Brentford

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Newcastle L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 0)

Brentford W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 4 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.51
# Clean Sheets: 2

Brentford

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.69
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Newcastle are favoured to take all three points, with a 70.0% probability of a home win against Brentford, who have just a 14.0% chance of victory and a 16.0% chance of a draw. The game is expected to be open, with a 57.0% probability of over 2.5 goals and both teams backed to score (59.0% “goal” probability). In the table, Brentford sit 7th on 36 points, while Newcastle are 11th on 33 points, aiming to close that gap.

Match Analysis

Newcastle come into this one on a three-game winless run (two defeats and a draw), having lost 4–1 at Liverpool and 0–2 at home to Aston Villa before a goalless draw away at Wolves. Despite those results, their attacking numbers over the last five matches remain strong: they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.36 expected goals, suggesting they are still creating plenty. Defensively, 1.6 goals conceded on average and 1.512 expected against, plus two clean sheets in five, point to a back line that is inconsistent but capable of shutting teams out. Brentford’s recent form has also been mixed: a fine 1–0 away win at Aston Villa was followed by back‑to‑back 2–0 defeats to Nott’m Forest and Chelsea. Over their last five games, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.374 expected goals, showing a steadier but less explosive attack than Newcastle. At the back, they concede 1.2 goals per game on average with 1.694 expected against and have also kept two clean sheets, but that xG against figure hints they allow more chances than Newcastle.

Final Prediction

Newcastle’s stronger chance creation and home advantage underpin their status as clear favourites, despite their recent dip in results. Brentford’s ability to edge tight away games means they cannot be written off, but they will likely have to absorb pressure. A key factor to watch will be whether Newcastle can convert their superior expected goals into an early lead, or if Brentford can frustrate them and hit back on the break.

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