Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs Everton Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Newcastle

Home Team
63%
VS

Everton

Away Team
17%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Shots: 26.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Newcastle L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 2)

Everton L L W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.66
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.53
# Clean Sheets: 0

Everton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.51
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Newcastle are favoured to take all three points at St James’ Park, with a 63.0% probability of a home win against an Everton side given just a 17.0% chance, and a 19.0% likelihood of a draw. With Newcastle sitting 11th on 36 points and Everton just above them in 9th on 37, this is a mid‑table clash with European hopes still flickering. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% and a goal for both sides rated at 62.0%.

Match Analysis

Newcastle come into this with mixed recent form but plenty of attacking intent. They’ve lost two of their last three – 1-2 at Man City and 2-3 at home to Brentford – either side of an impressive 2-1 win away at Tottenham. Across those matches they’ve scored five and conceded six, and the pattern is clear: Eddie Howe’s side are creating chances and games are being decided in both boxes. Their recent averages back that up: 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game in the last five, with a hefty 2.662 expected goals (xG) for and 1.526 xG against. Newcastle haven’t kept a clean sheet in that run, but they’re consistently threatening going forward. Everton, by contrast, have been in tighter, more attritional contests. They edged Fulham 2-1 away, but then slipped to back‑to‑back 1-2 and 0-1 home defeats against Bournemouth and Manchester United. That’s three goals scored and four conceded in their last three, with all three matches decided by a single goal. The Toffees’ last five games show 1.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded on average, with 1.374 xG for and 1.508 xG against, suggesting they tend to keep things relatively controlled but still allow a fair number of chances. Against a Newcastle side that plays front‑foot football, that defensive resilience will be tested.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 56.0% probability, and the recent numbers for both sides support the idea of goals. Two of Newcastle’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Brentford, 2-1 vs Spurs), with only the 1-2 defeat at Man City just edging over that line as well — all three in fact hit at least three total goals. Everton have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (2-1 at Fulham, 1-2 vs Bournemouth), with only the 0-1 loss to United staying under 2.5. With Newcastle averaging 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded and posting 2.662 xG for, and Everton combining 1.2 scored with 1.508 xG against, the balance tilts towards another game with chances and goals.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches
Everton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 26.08 expected shots in total, which is consistent with recent form. Newcastle’s last three games produced 16-11, 21-16 and 13-15 in shots, all comfortably above that combined mark and showing their willingness to shoot from varied positions. Everton’s recent outings also point to a relatively busy afternoon for both goalkeepers, with shot totals of 12-11 vs United, 16-11 vs Bournemouth and 16-13 at Fulham. Given Newcastle’s strong xG of 2.662 and Everton’s 1.374 xG, it’s reasonable to expect that this volume of efforts will again translate into clear chances.

Final Prediction

Newcastle’s edge comes from their superior attacking output and home advantage, backed up by higher recent xG and a steady flow of shots and corners that should eventually tell on the scoreboard. Everton have been stubborn and compact, but their narrow defeats and slightly higher xG conceded hint at vulnerabilities that Newcastle’s front line can exploit. The key factor to watch will be whether Everton’s disciplined shape can withstand Newcastle’s relentless crossing and shooting, especially as the game opens up in the second half.

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