Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction - 7 Jan 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Newcastle

Home Team
83%
VS

Leeds

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 20 15 3 2 40 14 26 48
2 Man City 20 13 3 4 44 18 26 42
3 Aston Villa 20 13 3 4 33 24 9 42
4 Liverpool 20 10 4 6 32 28 4 34
5 Chelsea 20 8 7 5 33 22 11 31
6 Man United 20 8 7 5 34 30 4 31
7 Brentford 20 9 3 8 32 28 4 30
8 Sunderland 20 7 9 4 21 19 2 30
9 Newcastle 20 8 5 7 28 24 4 29
10 Brighton 20 7 7 6 30 27 3 28
11 Fulham 20 8 4 8 28 29 -1 28
12 Everton 20 8 4 8 22 24 -2 28
13 Tottenham 20 7 6 7 28 24 4 27
14 Crystal Palace 20 7 6 7 22 23 -1 27
15 Bournemouth 20 5 8 7 31 38 -7 23
16 Leeds 20 5 7 8 26 33 -7 22
17 Nott'm Forest 20 5 3 12 19 33 -14 18
18 West Ham 20 3 5 12 21 41 -20 14
19 Burnley 20 3 3 14 20 39 -19 12
20 Wolves 20 1 3 16 14 40 -26 6

Recent Trends

Newcastle W W L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)

Leeds D D D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

xG (avg) 2.34
xGA (avg) 1.48
Clean Sheets 1

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.31
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Newcastle and Leeds is heavily tipped in favor of the home side, with an impressive 83.0% probability of a Newcastle victory. The match is also expected to see over 2.5 goals scored, with a 53.0% likelihood. Currently, Newcastle sits 9th in the Premier League standings, while Leeds is positioned at 16th. Given these factors, Newcastle looks poised to capitalize on their form and league position advantage.

Match Analysis

Newcastle enters the game on the back of a solid run, having secured victories in two of their last three matches, including a convincing 3-1 win against Burnley away and a comfortable 2-0 home victory against Crystal Palace. Despite a narrow 1-0 loss to Manchester United, their attacking prowess is evident with an average of 2.0 goals scored per game over their last five outings. Defensively, they've maintained a reasonable stability, conceding an average of 1.2 goals and achieving one clean sheet in the same period. Leeds, in contrast, has been held to draws in their last three fixtures, including a commendable 1-1 draw against Manchester United and a goalless stalemate with Liverpool. However, their inability to secure a win hints at underlying vulnerabilities. Leeds averages 1.0 goals scored while conceding 1.6 goals per match over their last five games, indicating defensive frailties. Their expected goals metrics show a slight edge in attack with 1.314 expected goals, but defensive lapses remain a concern with 1.706 expected goals conceded.

Final Prediction

Newcastle's recent form and superior league position give them a definitive edge over Leeds. Their consistent goal-scoring ability, coupled with Leeds' defensive challenges, positions them as the favorites to emerge victorious. Fans should keep an eye on Newcastle's attacking players, who could exploit Leeds' defensive weaknesses and make a significant impact in this encounter.

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