Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs Man City Prediction - 22 Nov 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Newcastle

Home Team
24%
VS

Man City

Away Team
56%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 11 8 2 1 20 5 15 26
2 Man City 11 7 1 3 23 8 15 22
3 Chelsea 11 6 2 3 21 11 10 20
4 Sunderland 11 5 4 2 14 10 4 19
5 Tottenham 11 5 3 3 19 10 9 18
6 Aston Villa 11 5 3 3 13 10 3 18
7 Man United 11 5 3 3 19 18 1 18
8 Liverpool 11 6 0 5 18 17 1 18
9 Bournemouth 11 5 3 3 17 18 -1 18
10 Crystal Palace 11 4 5 2 14 9 5 17
11 Brighton 11 4 4 3 17 15 2 16
12 Brentford 11 5 1 5 17 17 0 16
13 Everton 11 4 3 4 12 13 -1 15
14 Newcastle 11 3 3 5 11 14 -3 12
15 Fulham 11 3 2 6 12 16 -4 11
16 Leeds 11 3 2 6 10 20 -10 11
17 Burnley 11 3 1 7 14 22 -8 10
18 West Ham 11 3 1 7 13 23 -10 10
19 Nott'm Forest 11 2 3 6 10 20 -10 9
20 Wolves 11 0 2 9 7 25 -18 2

Recent Trends

Newcastle L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 0)

Man City W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bournemouth (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.99
# Clean Sheets: 1

Man City

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Newcastle and Manchester City is tipped in favor of the visitors, with a 56.0% probability for a Manchester City victory. Newcastle holds a 24.0% chance of securing a win at home, while there is a 20.0% likelihood of a draw. Both teams are expected to keep the scoreline under 2.5 goals. Manchester City currently sits comfortably in 2nd place in the league, while Newcastle finds themselves in 14th position, seeking to climb the standings.

Match Analysis

Newcastle's recent form has been inconsistent, with two losses and one victory in their last three matches. They suffered back-to-back 3-1 defeats away to Brentford and West Ham before securing a narrow 2-1 win at home against Fulham. Despite this rocky patch, Newcastle has shown promise with an average of 1.6 goals scored per game in their last five matches. However, their defense has been slightly leaky, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game, with just one clean sheet in the same period. In contrast, Manchester City has showcased their prowess with two wins and one loss in their recent outings. A commanding 3-0 win over Liverpool and a 3-1 victory against Bournemouth highlight their attacking threat, although they stumbled in a 1-0 defeat away at Aston Villa. City has been defensively robust, averaging 0.8 goals conceded per game and securing three clean sheets in their last five matches. Their attack remains potent, with an average of 1.4 goals scored per game, bolstered by an expected goals figure of 1.604.

Final Prediction

Manchester City appears to have the upper hand due to their strong defensive record and consistent goal-scoring ability. Their ability to maintain clean sheets could be a decisive factor in this match. Football fans should keep an eye on Manchester City's defensive organization and how Newcastle's offense manages to break through, given their recent scoring performances.

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