Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs Man United Prediction - 4 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Newcastle

Home Team
39%
VS

Man United

Away Team
35%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 67%
No Goal: 33%
Expected Shots: 26.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Newcastle L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 4)

Man United W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.80
# Clean Sheets: 0

Man United

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.92
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Newcastle are slight favourites here, with a 39.0% chance of victory compared to Manchester United’s 35.0%, and the model edging towards a home win. Goals are expected, with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% probability. United come into this third in the table on 51 points, while Newcastle sit 13th on 36 points and still looking up the league rather than over their shoulders.

Match Analysis

Newcastle’s last three games have been chaotic but entertaining: a 2-3 home defeat to Everton, a narrow 1-2 loss away at Man City, and a 2-1 win at Tottenham. They’ve shown they can trade punches with top sides, racking up 17, 13 and 21 shots respectively, but that fragility at the back is clear. Over the last five matches they’ve scored 2.0 goals per game but conceded 2.2 and failed to keep a single clean sheet, a pattern that suggests another open contest at St James’ Park. Manchester United, by contrast, have been more controlled if not always free-flowing. A 2-1 home win over Crystal Palace, a grinding 1-0 victory away at Everton, and a 1-1 draw at West Ham show a team that’s found ways to get results on the road. Their recent numbers back that up: 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average over the last five matches, with two clean sheets. Defensively, their xG conceded of just 0.916 per game is notably tighter than Newcastle’s 1.802, hinting at a more solid structure even if they don’t create quite as much as Newcastle (1.46 xG vs Newcastle’s 2.31).

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for over 2.5 with a 59.0% probability, and the recent form supports that over 2.5 prediction. Two of Newcastle’s last three league matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Everton, 2-1 vs Spurs), with only the 1-2 defeat at Man City staying tight. United’s last three have all finished under 2.5 (2-1, 1-0, 1-1), but the clash of Newcastle’s 2.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game with United’s more efficient attack and 1.46 xG suggests this could open up, especially if the hosts play on the front foot.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches
Man United
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.46, suggesting a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Newcastle have produced 17, 13 and 21 shots in their last three, while allowing 9, 15 and 16; United have managed 20, 11 and 9, while conceding 8, 12 and 7. That balance of attacking intent and the xG profiles of both teams make a shots prediction in the mid‑20s logical, with Newcastle’s higher xG output and United’s efficiency likely translating into a steady stream of chances.

Final Prediction

Newcastle’s edge comes from their attacking volume and home advantage, backed by stronger recent xG in the final third, even if their defence is more vulnerable than United’s. The key factor to watch will be whether United’s tighter back line can withstand Newcastle’s pressure; if the hosts pin them back early, this fixture has all the ingredients for a high‑tempo, chance‑laden game.

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