Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Newcastle

Home Team
66%
VS

Sunderland

Away Team
16%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 30 15 9 6 54 41 13 54
4 Aston Villa 30 15 6 9 40 37 3 51
5 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 49 40 9 49
6 Chelsea 30 13 9 8 53 35 18 48
7 Brentford 30 13 6 11 46 42 4 45
8 Everton 30 12 7 11 34 35 -1 43
9 Newcastle 30 12 6 12 43 43 0 42
10 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 44 46 -2 41
11 Fulham 30 12 5 13 40 43 -3 41
12 Brighton 30 10 10 10 39 36 3 40
13 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 30 35 -5 40
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 30 7 11 12 37 48 -11 32
16 Tottenham 30 7 9 14 40 47 -7 30
17 Nott'm Forest 30 7 8 15 28 43 -15 29
18 West Ham 30 7 8 15 36 55 -19 29
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 32 58 -26 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Newcastle W W L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)

Sunderland L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

xG (avg) 2.16
xGA (avg) 1.91
Clean Sheets 1

Sunderland

xG (avg) 0.91
xGA (avg) 1.99
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Newcastle are strong favourites here, with a 66.0% chance of victory compared to just 16.0% for Sunderland, and an 18.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction for goals (52.0%), as 9th-placed Newcastle look to push towards the European spots against 13th-placed Sunderland in mid-table.

Match Analysis

Newcastle come in from an impressive pair of wins over Chelsea (1-0 away) and Manchester United (2-1 at home), before a chaotic 3-2 home defeat to Everton. Those three games underline a team that creates plenty: they’ve scored five goals in that spell and outshot Everton 17-9, even in defeat. Over the last five matches, Newcastle are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, backed up by 2.158 expected goals for and 1.908 against, suggesting a side that plays on the front foot but leaves space at the back. Sunderland’s recent run tells a different story. They edged Leeds 1-0 away despite being outshot 18-3, drew 1-1 at Bournemouth, and lost 1-0 at home to Brighton. The pattern is low-scoring, tight games but with Sunderland often second-best in chance creation. Across their last five, they average just 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with only 0.914 expected goals for and 1.99 against. That combination – struggling to create and regularly allowing chances – is a major concern heading into a trip to St James’ Park.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 52.0%, and there’s evidence to back that up. Two of Newcastle’s last three league games (2-1 vs Man United, 3-2 vs Everton) went over 2.5, with only the 1-0 win at Chelsea staying under. Sunderland, by contrast, have seen under 2.5 in two of their last three (1-0 at Leeds, 0-1 vs Brighton), with just the 1-1 draw at Bournemouth finishing under but close to the line. Newcastle’s mix of 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, plus their healthy xG figures, suggests enough attacking threat to drag this away from the typical Sunderland under 2.5 pattern.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Newcastle
Corners in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 10.15, which fits the recent numbers for both sides. Newcastle’s last three have produced 9, 6 and 9 corners respectively, with the Everton match (7-2 to Newcastle) showing how their attacking pressure at home can rack up set-piece situations. Sunderland’s games have been corner-heavy too: 10 vs Brighton (7-3), 11 at Leeds (9-2 against them) and 10 at Bournemouth (7-3). That volume backs up a corners prediction around double figures, with Newcastle’s aggressive home approach likely to generate plenty of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.76 looks realistic given recent patterns. Newcastle matches have been open: 22-7 in Chelsea’s favour, 14-12 vs Man United and 17-9 vs Everton, all comfortably into the mid-to-high 20s for combined attempts. Sunderland’s last three have been similar in volume, if not quality: 14-12 vs Brighton, 18-3 vs Leeds and 21-8 vs Bournemouth, with Sunderland often absorbing pressure. That fits a shots prediction of around 26 efforts overall, with Newcastle’s stronger xG profile suggesting they’ll create the better chances.

Final Prediction

Newcastle’s edge comes from their superior attacking output, stronger xG numbers and home advantage, set against a Sunderland side that has struggled badly to fashion chances. If Sunderland can’t improve their creativity, the pressure on their back line will tell. The key factor to watch is Newcastle’s ability to sustain attacks and recycle possession around the box, which should decide both the result and the goal total.

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