Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs West Ham Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Newcastle

Home Team
59%
VS

West Ham

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: +0.5

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 42 79
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 15 65
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 12 59
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 4 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 36 14 11 11 52 42 10 53
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 3 51
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46
14 Leeds 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 36 11 11 14 38 47 -9 44
16 Nott'm Forest 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21
20 Wolves 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Newcastle D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 2)

West Ham L L W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

xG (avg) 1.82
xGA (avg) 2.43
Clean Sheets 0

West Ham

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 1.64
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Newcastle are favoured to take all three points at St James’ Park, with a 59.0% chance of a home win against a West Ham side given just a 21.0% probability of victory (draw also 21.0%). The model points firmly towards Eddie Howe’s team edging this, with an expected goal spread of +0.53. In the table, Newcastle sit 13th on 46 points, while West Ham are down in 18th with 36 points and fighting to avoid the drop, adding extra tension to this clash.

Match Analysis

Newcastle come into this with mixed recent form: a 3-1 home win over Brighton was sandwiched between a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest and a narrow 1-0 defeat away at Arsenal. They’ve shown they can create chances – 16 shots at Forest, 13 against Brighton, 13 at Arsenal – but they’ve also looked open, conceding 17 shots to Forest and 13 to Brighton. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with xG figures of 1.82 for and a worrying 2.426 against, and no clean sheets in that run. West Ham’s last three tell a different story: a vital 2-1 home win over Everton has been followed by back-to-back defeats, 3-0 away at Brentford and 1-0 at home to Arsenal. They have struggled badly in attack over a longer sample, averaging just 0.6 goals scored in their last five matches, but their underlying numbers (0.996 xG for, 1.644 xG against) suggest they are at least in games, even if results have not followed. Two clean sheets in their last five hint at a capacity to dig in, but a season-long goal difference of -20 underlines why they are in relegation trouble.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured here, with a 59.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Newcastle’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Brighton, 1-1 at Forest, 0-1 at Arsenal), reflecting a side that both scores and concedes. West Ham have seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (0-1 vs Arsenal, 0-3 at Brentford, 2-1 vs Everton), but with Newcastle averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded – and matching that with 1.82 xG for and 2.426 xG against – the balance of probabilities leans towards another open contest rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Newcastle
Corners in last 5 matches
West Ham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.04 total corners, suggesting a reasonably active game in wide areas without being frantic. Newcastle’s recent corner counts have been modest from their perspective – 1, 2 and 2 – but their opponents have racked up 2, 10 and 7, meaning their open style invites pressure and set-piece opportunities. West Ham have been more consistent in this department, with combined corner totals of 7, 8 and 7 in their last three matches, and their direct, crossing-heavy approach should help push the predicted corners figure towards double digits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches
West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With an expected shots total of 25.95, the shots prediction anticipates a game with a steady stream of attempts rather than a cagey stalemate. Newcastle’s last three have produced combined shot counts of 33, 26 and 24, underlining how their matches tend to be open and chance-filled. West Ham’s recent games have seen 24, 27 and 21 total shots, and when you marry those numbers with Newcastle’s higher xG against (2.426) and West Ham’s near-1.0 xG for, the expected shots volume looks well justified.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Newcastle wins by X goals. Negative = West Ham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Newcastle vs West Ham with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Newcastle vs West Ham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of +0.53 in Newcastle’s favour implies a likely narrow home win, in line with the 59.0% home-win probability. Across their last three, Newcastle are +1 on goal difference (4 scored, 3 conceded), while West Ham sit at -3 (2 scored, 5 conceded), which fits the expected spread picture of a slightly stronger, more productive home side. Newcastle’s better attacking averages, combined with West Ham’s low 0.6 goals per game over their last five, are the key drivers behind that expected spread.

Final Prediction

Newcastle’s edge comes from a more potent attack, stronger underlying chance creation and home advantage, even if their defensive numbers remain a concern. West Ham’s lack of goals and inferior goal difference leave them as underdogs despite their fight for survival. The key factor to watch will be whether Newcastle’s forward line can turn their xG dominance into an early lead, forcing West Ham to open up and play a game they have recently struggled to control.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel