Premier League 2025-2026: Nott'm Forest vs Fulham Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Nott'm Forest

Home Team
40%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
33%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 26.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

Nott'm Forest D L L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 3)

Fulham L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nott'm Forest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.80
# Clean Sheets: 1

Fulham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.39
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.96
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Nottingham Forest are narrowly favoured at home, with a 40.0% chance of victory compared to Fulham’s 33.0% and a 27.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a Forest win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (53.0% for over), suggesting a game with chances at both ends. Fulham arrive in mid-table comfort in 10th on 40 points, while Forest sit 17th on 28 points and are still firmly in the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Forest’s recent run has been better in performances than in results. A 2-2 draw away at Manchester City, followed by narrow defeats to Brighton (1-2) and Liverpool (0-1), shows they have been competitive against strong opposition. They created 18 shots against Liverpool and 13 at Brighton, and their last five matches show they’re generating decent chances (1.536 expected goals per game) even if the finishing has lagged badly, with only 0.2 goals scored on average. Fulham, by contrast, have mixed form but more cutting edge. Wins over Tottenham (2-1) and Sunderland (3-1) were followed by a flat 0-1 home loss to West Ham. They are scoring 1.2 goals per game across their last five, but also conceding 1.8, underlining how open their matches can be. Their xG numbers – 1.39 for and 1.96 against – mirror Forest’s: both sides are giving up more than they’d like, which supports the slight lean towards a home win in what could be a game decided in both penalty areas rather than one-way dominance.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, edging out the under. Two of Forest’s last three matches hit under 2.5 (1-2, 0-1) with only the 2-2 draw at City going over, but the underlying numbers – 1.536 xG for and 1.804 xG against per game – suggest more goals are possible than their raw 0.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. Fulham have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-1, 2-1) and one under (0-1), and with 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average, plus 1.96 xG against, they look likelier to be involved in another open contest than a cagey under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nott'm Forest
Corners in last 5 matches
Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.14, pointing towards a relatively busy afternoon from wide areas. Forest’s last three outings produced 1, 4 and 7 corners for them (conceding 6, 4 and 2), while Fulham’s recent trio saw them win 7, 5 and 4 (conceding 5, 8 and 6). Both sides have shown a willingness to attack, especially at home for Forest and when chasing games for Fulham, which supports a corners prediction around the 10 mark in a match likely to swing quickly from end to end.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches
Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for the game stand at 26.85, suggesting a reasonably open match without being a total shootout. Forest have taken 9, 13 and 18 shots in their last three, while facing 21, 14 and 10, reflecting a team that can both create and concede opportunities. Fulham’s numbers are similar – 13, 18 and 12 shots taken, with 9, 13 and 12 faced – and that aligns with their xG profiles, backing a shots prediction close to the expected shots figure as both forward lines should see enough of the ball.

Final Prediction

Forest’s slight edge comes from home advantage and their improved underlying numbers against top opposition, even if the results column doesn’t fully show it. Fulham’s more open, higher-scoring style could leave gaps for Forest to exploit. The key factor to watch will be which side makes more of the chances that their xG suggests they will create, as finishing efficiency is likely to decide this one.

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