Premier League 2025-2026: Nott'm Forest vs Liverpool Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Nott'm Forest

Home Team
23%
VS

Liverpool

Away Team
59%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Shots: 27.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Nott'm Forest D L D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 0)

Liverpool W L W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nott'm Forest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.47
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.62
# Clean Sheets: 3

Liverpool

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.33
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are favoured to take all three points at the City Ground, with a 59.0% probability of an away win against just 23.0% for Nott'm Forest and 18.0% for the draw. The model also points to an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% likelihood. In the table, Liverpool sit 6th on 42 points chasing the top five, while Forest are 17th on 27 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Forest come into this on a three-game winless run (two draws, one defeat), but their performances haven’t been entirely negative. They shut out Wolves in a 0-0 at home and earned a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, yet the 3-1 loss at Leeds underlined their defensive vulnerability. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged just 0.4 goals scored per game, despite creating 1.47 expected goals, suggesting wastefulness in front of goal. Defensively they’ve been more solid than their league position suggests, conceding only 1.0 goal per game with three clean sheets in that span, though xG against at 1.616 hints that opponents are still creating decent chances. Liverpool’s last three league outings (two wins, one defeat) underline their push for the Champions League places. They edged Sunderland 1-0 away and dismantled Newcastle 4-1 at home, either side of a narrow 2-1 home loss to Man City where they were competitive in both shots (15-17) and corners (5-4). In their last five games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4579 xG, showing a consistent ability to create chances, even if results have been slightly up and down. Defensively, 1.2 goals conceded per game on 1.332 xG against and just one clean sheet indicate they can be got at, but they generally out-shoot and out-chance opponents.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 59.0% probability, expecting this to be more open than some of Forest’s recent games. Two of Forest’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-0 vs Wolves, 1-1 vs Crystal Palace), with only the 3-1 defeat at Leeds going over. For Liverpool, two of their last three went over 2.5 (4-1 vs Newcastle, 2-1 vs Man City), with only the 1-0 at Sunderland under. Given Liverpool’s higher averages in goals scored and xG, and Forest’s xG numbers suggesting they should score more than they have, the data leans towards goals rather than a cagey contest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots prediction is 27.59 total efforts, which fits the recent patterns of both sides. Forest’s last three games saw totals of 42 shots vs Wolves (35-7), 30 vs Leeds (16-14) and 23 vs Palace (9-14), showing that their matches often involve plenty of attempts at goal at both ends. Liverpool’s last three produced 34 shots vs Sunderland, 32 vs Man City and 25 vs Newcastle, aligning closely with their xG figures that come from steady chance creation. A game with around 28–30 expected shots suits Liverpool’s attacking mindset and should give both forward lines opportunities.

Final Prediction

Liverpool have the edge thanks to their stronger attacking numbers, higher league position, and a greater probability of victory backed by both results and xG. Forest’s recent defensive resilience and the City Ground atmosphere could keep it competitive, but their poor conversion rate in front of goal is a concern. A key factor to watch will be whether Forest can finally match their xG with actual goals, because if they remain wasteful, Liverpool’s more clinical attack is likely to decide the contest.

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