Premier League 2025-2026: Nott'm Forest vs Newcastle Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nott'm Forest

Home Team
53%
VS

Newcastle

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Nott'm Forest W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 0)

Newcastle W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nott'm Forest

xG (avg) 1.55
xGA (avg) 1.14
Clean Sheets 2

Newcastle

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 1.89
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Nott'm Forest are slight favourites here, with a 53.0% chance of victory compared to Newcastle’s 24.0%, and a 23.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a home win in a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0% probability. In the table, Forest sit 16th on 42 points, just behind 13th‑placed Newcastle on 45, adding extra spice to this mid‑table clash.

Match Analysis

Forest come into this one in flying form, with three straight wins: 3-1 at Chelsea, 5-0 at Sunderland and 4-1 at home to Burnley. They’ve found a ruthless edge in front of goal recently, scoring 12 across those matches, and the Burnley performance in particular underlined their efficiency – only 10 shots but four goals. Behind that hot streak, the last five matches show a more measured picture: 1.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded on average, with 1.546 xG for and 1.14 xG against, plus two clean sheets, suggesting a side balancing improved attacking output with solid defensive structure. Newcastle arrive in more mixed shape: a 3-1 home win over Brighton was much needed, but it followed back‑to‑back defeats against Arsenal (0-1) and Bournemouth (1-2). They’ve been competitive in all three matches – 13 shots against Brighton, 13 at Arsenal and 12 versus Bournemouth – yet they’ve not turned territory into dominance. Over their last five, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded, with 1.23 xG for but a worrying 1.886 xG against and no clean sheets, underlining defensive frailty that could be exposed by a confident Forest attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to under 2.5 with a 47.0% chance for over, so under 2.5 is the headline call despite Forest’s recent high‑scoring games. All three of Forest’s latest matches went over 2.5 goals (4, 5 and 5 total), while 2 of Newcastle’s 3 also cleared the line (4 vs Brighton, 3 vs Bournemouth, only the 1-0 at Arsenal staying under). However, the underlying averages – Forest and Newcastle both at 1.0 goals scored per game over the last five, with Forest conceding just 0.6 and Newcastle 1.2 – and moderate xG numbers support a cautious under 2.5 prediction in a game that may tighten up given the table situation.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nott'm Forest
Corners in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.13, pointing towards a fairly standard Premier League total. Forest’s recent games have produced 11, 9 and 8 corners, while Newcastle’s have seen 12, 9 and 5, which aligns well with that predicted corners figure. With both sides showing a willingness to attack – Newcastle especially through volume of shots – the corners prediction suggests enough pressure at both ends to get into double digits, but not an extreme outlier.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this match is 24.53, indicating a reasonably open encounter without being end‑to‑end chaos. Forest’s last three games featured 6, 10 and 10 attempts for them, while allowing 21, 14 and 4, and Newcastle have consistently generated 12–13 shots in each of their last three. That volume matches the shots prediction and ties neatly to the xG data: both teams create around 1.2–1.5 expected goals per match, which usually translates into mid‑20s expected shots overall.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nott'm Forest wins by X goals. Negative = Newcastle wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nott'm Forest vs Newcastle with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nott'm Forest vs Newcastle
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction favours Forest by 0.64 goals, reflecting their status as home favourites. Their recent scorelines – +2 at Chelsea, +5 at Sunderland and +3 against Burnley – are clearly unsustainable margins, but they do show a team in the ascendancy, while Newcastle’s last three have produced a goal difference of just +1 overall. The expected spread aligns with the win probabilities and the advanced metrics: Forest’s lower xGA (1.14) and tighter defence contrast with Newcastle’s higher xGA (1.886), tilting the balance slightly towards the hosts.

Final Prediction

Forest’s edge comes from their current momentum and more secure defensive numbers, combined with home advantage in what looks like a finely poised match. Newcastle’s attack will still ask questions, but their vulnerability at the back could prove decisive. The key factor to watch is whether Forest can maintain their recent clinical finishing against a side that has been giving up plenty of chances.

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