Premier League 2025-2026: Sunderland vs Brighton Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Sunderland

Home Team
28%
VS

Brighton

Away Team
49%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 23.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

Sunderland W D L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 3)

Brighton L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sunderland

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.43
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.79
# Clean Sheets: 1

Brighton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.64
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.73
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Brighton are slight but clear favourites here, with a 49.0% chance of taking all three points away at Sunderland, who sit 11th on 40 points, just three places and three points above 14th‑placed Brighton. The model leans towards a tight away win, combined with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a fairly balanced goals market (49.0% chance of over 2.5). With both sides hovering in mid‑table and the European spots and relegation battle still in play, this has the feel of a knife‑edge contest.

Match Analysis

Sunderland come into this on a mixed run: a hard‑fought 1-0 away win at Leeds, a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, and a 3-1 home defeat to Fulham. The pattern is of a team that often has to absorb pressure – they were out‑shot 18-3 at Leeds and 21-8 at Bournemouth – yet can still nick results. Over their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, but the underlying numbers are less reassuring: they allow 1.79 expected goals per game while creating 1.43, suggesting they’re giving opponents decent chances and leaning on efficiency at both ends. Brighton’s recent form is slightly stronger: back‑to‑back wins against Nottingham Forest (2-1) and Brentford (2-0) were followed by a narrow 1-0 home defeat to leaders Arsenal. They’ve found a bit of balance, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 per match over the last five, with xG figures of 1.64 for and 1.73 against. That hints at open games in both directions, but importantly, they’ve shown they can control matches enough to keep clean sheets, as against Brentford, and still generate chances away from home. The advanced metrics tilt this towards Brighton: both teams allow more xG than they produce, but Brighton’s attack is slightly more potent and consistent, while Sunderland’s defence looks more vulnerable on the quality of chances conceded. In a match between two mid‑table sides, that extra cutting edge can be decisive.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs under 2.5 with a 51% edge over the 49.0% chance of going over, which fits with recent scorelines. Two of Sunderland’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (1-0 at Leeds, 1-1 at Bournemouth), with only the 3-1 loss to Fulham going over. For Brighton, two of the last three were also under (1-0 v Arsenal, 2-0 at Brentford) and just the 2-1 win over Forest crept over the line. With both sides averaging 1.2 goals scored in their last five and conceding around 1.0–1.2, plus xG figures that sit in the mid‑ones for and high‑ones against, a cagey game with few clear‑cut chances is logical. The under 2.5 prediction is therefore well supported by both recent outcomes and underlying attacking numbers.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches
Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.76 expected shots in total, and the recent data backs that up. Sunderland’s last three saw them manage 3, 8 and 12 attempts, while facing 18, 21 and 12 – generally second best in volume. Brighton, meanwhile, have been consistently active: 11, 14 and 11 shots in their last three, while allowing 7, 13 and 13. Those numbers, combined with both teams’ xG (around 1.4–1.7 for and against), suggest a game where Brighton edge the shot count but the overall volume stays in the low‑to‑mid 20s. The expected shots total reflects two sides capable of creating opportunities, but not the relentless attacking output of the league’s top teams.

Final Prediction

Brighton’s slight edge in attacking fluency, stronger recent results and the underlying xG profile gives them the narrow advantage over Sunderland, especially with almost a 50% win probability. Sunderland’s habit of conceding high shot and xG volumes could catch up with them against a more efficient front line. The key factor to watch will be how well Sunderland can restrict Brighton’s supply around the box; if they’re pinned back again, the away side’s extra quality in the final third should tell.

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