Premier League 2025-2026: Sunderland vs Burnley Prediction

Sunderland

Home Team
81%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
9%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 23 15 5 3 42 17 25 50
2 Man City 23 14 4 5 47 21 26 46
3 Aston Villa 23 14 4 5 35 25 10 46
4 Man United 23 10 8 5 41 34 7 38
5 Chelsea 23 10 7 6 39 25 14 37
6 Liverpool 23 10 6 7 35 32 3 36
7 Fulham 23 10 4 9 32 32 0 34
8 Brentford 23 10 3 10 35 32 3 33
9 Newcastle 23 9 6 8 32 29 3 33
10 Everton 23 9 6 8 25 26 -1 33
11 Sunderland 23 8 9 6 24 26 -2 33
12 Brighton 23 7 9 7 33 31 2 30
13 Bournemouth 23 7 9 7 38 43 -5 30
14 Tottenham 23 7 7 9 33 31 2 28
15 Crystal Palace 23 7 7 9 24 28 -4 28
16 Leeds 23 6 8 9 31 38 -7 26
17 Nott'm Forest 23 7 4 12 23 34 -11 25
18 West Ham 23 5 5 13 27 45 -18 20
19 Burnley 23 3 6 14 25 44 -19 15
20 Wolves 23 1 5 17 15 43 -28 8

Recent Trends

Sunderland ❌ ✅ ❌ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 0)

Burnley ⚪ ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sunderland

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.63
# Clean Sheets: 1

Burnley

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.46
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Sunderland and Burnley sees Sunderland poised as the favorites, with an 81.0% probability of winning on their home turf. There is a modest 9.0% chance of Burnley pulling off a victory, while a draw stands at 11.0%. Currently, Sunderland occupies the 11th position in the Premier League standings, whereas Burnley is struggling at 19th place. The game is predicted to be a low-scoring affair with under 2.5 goals expected, based on a 48.0% probability.

Match Analysis

In their last three outings, Sunderland has experienced a mixed bag of results. A home victory against Crystal Palace was sandwiched between away losses to West Ham and Brentford. Their inconsistent form is reflected in their recent performances, where they have averaged 1.4 goals per game while conceding an average of 0.8. Despite a solid defensive record, they have managed just one clean sheet in the last five matches. Conversely, Burnley is battling a tough season, evident from their position near the bottom of the table. However, they have shown resilience with three consecutive draws against formidable opponents like Tottenham, Liverpool, and Man United. Despite these commendable performances, Burnley has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game while scoring just 0.8 on average over their last five matches. Their lack of clean sheets highlights a vulnerability that Sunderland may look to exploit.

Final Prediction

Sunderland's edge comes from their superior position in the league and a slightly better recent form compared to Burnley. Their defensive solidity and home advantage further tilt the scales in their favor. A critical factor to watch in this encounter will be Sunderland's ability to capitalize on Burnley's defensive frailties, which might just be the decisive element in securing a home victory.