Premier League 2025-2026: Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Sunderland

Home Team
34%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
43%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 24.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Sunderland L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 1)

Fulham L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sunderland

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.88
# Clean Sheets: 1

Fulham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.84
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are slight favourites here, with a 43.0% chance of an away win compared to Sunderland’s 34.0%, and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model backs Fulham to edge it (predicted result: A) in what looks like a tight mid‑table clash between 11th‑placed Sunderland (36 points) and 12th‑placed Fulham (34 points). Goals are expected, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Sunderland come into this one after a mixed three‑game run: heavy defeats to Arsenal (0‑3 away) and Liverpool (0‑1 at home) were offset by a convincing 3‑0 home win over Burnley. Those results underline a clear pattern: they’ve kept things relatively tight defensively in two of those three, but their attack has only clicked once, failing to score against both Liverpool and Arsenal. Across the last five matches, Sunderland average 1.2 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, but their expected goals against (1.882 xGA) suggest they’ve been allowing more chances than the raw goals against column implies. Fulham arrive on a three‑match losing streak, but the scorelines tell a story of competitiveness. They were outclassed 0‑3 by Man City away, but pushed Everton close in a 1‑2 home defeat and were involved in a 2‑3 thriller at Man United. In their last five, Fulham average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG for (1.178) and xG against (1.836) indicating they are creating but also giving up a steady flow of chances. Crucially, they have no clean sheets in that period, which could give Sunderland encouragement at home despite Fulham’s slightly higher win probability.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 52.0% chance of the game producing at least three goals. Two of Fulham’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2‑3 vs Man United, 1‑2 vs Everton), while only one of Sunderland’s last three has gone over (3‑0 vs Burnley). The combined averages – Sunderland scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.6 per game, Fulham scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6, plus fairly similar xG figures for both attacks – support the idea of a match where both sides can find the net (goal probability 53.0%) and push the total beyond the under 2.5 line.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches
Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.17, so we can anticipate roughly 24 shots combined. Recently, Sunderland have produced 11, 5 and 14 shots across their last three, while facing 23, 16 and 5, showing they can be either pinned back or dominant depending on the opponent. Fulham have been consistently active: 13, 13 and 14 shots in their last three, with similar numbers conceded. Those volumes line up well with the expected shots figure and with both teams’ xG profiles, hinting at a game with regular shooting opportunities rather than a cagey stalemate.

Final Prediction

Fulham are given the slight edge because of their higher win probability, more consistent shot output and greater tendency to force corners and attacking situations. Sunderland’s recent defensive over‑performance versus their xGA suggests they could be tested if Fulham sustain pressure. A key factor to watch will be whether Sunderland can reproduce the clinical home display seen against Burnley or whether Fulham’s more frequent attacking flurries tilt the balance their way.

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