Premier League 2025-2026: Sunderland vs Man United Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sunderland

Home Team
24%
VS

Man United

Away Team
54%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.5

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Sunderland D L L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)

Man United W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sunderland

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 1.79
Clean Sheets 1

Man United

xG (avg) 1.24
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Man United are favoured to take all three points at the Stadium of Light, with a 54.0% probability of an away win compared to just 24.0% for Sunderland and 21.0% for the draw. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% likelihood. United come into this one sitting 3rd with 64 points, while Sunderland are 12th on 47 points, safely mid-table but short of the European race.

Match Analysis

Sunderland’s recent form has been chaotic rather than convincing. They’ve taken just one point from their last three – a 1-1 draw at Wolves and heavy home and away defeats to Nott’m Forest (0-5) and Aston Villa (3-4). The pattern is clear: defensively they are leaking chances and goals, conceding 10 in three games. Over the last five, they’ve shipped an average of 2.0 goals per match, and even their xG conceded of 1.788 per game underlines how often they’re being opened up, despite one clean sheet in that spell. United arrive in far better shape, with three wins on the bounce against Liverpool (3-2), Brentford (2-1) and Chelsea (1-0). They’ve been efficient rather than explosive, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five, with xG for (1.238) and against (1.378) suggesting relatively tight contests. Importantly, they’ve shown they can edge close games and protect a lead better than Sunderland, whose negative goal difference (-9 overall, -5 over the last three) contrasts with United’s overall +15.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% looks well-founded here. Two of Sunderland’s last three matches exploded over 2.5 goals (5 vs Forest, 7 vs Villa), with only the 1-1 at Wolves staying under; their defensive record of 2.0 goals conceded per game and xG against of 1.788 points towards another open affair. United have had two over 2.5 games in their last three (3-2 vs Liverpool, 2-1 vs Brentford) and one under (1-0 vs Chelsea), and with both sides averaging around one xG for per match, a 2–3 goal game or more fits the pattern.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches
Man United
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.65, suggesting a fairly typical Premier League match. Sunderland’s last three have produced 9, 9 and 9 corners respectively (they’ve taken 3, 3 and 5), while United’s games have seen 5, 15 and 8 corners, with United often conceding a fair number (2, 8 and 7). With United likely to have more of the ball and Sunderland looking to break and cross, the predicted corners total around 10 matches the recent evidence.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches
Man United
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.15 indicates a lively contest in and around both boxes. Sunderland’s last three outings have featured 10, 14 and 10 shots for, but they’ve allowed 20, 10 and 15 – often on the back foot. United have generated 18, 11 and just 4 shots in their last three, but have faced 13, 12 and a hefty 21. This shots prediction aligns with both teams’ xG numbers: they don’t always create huge volumes, but when they do attack, chances tend to be decent.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sunderland wins by X goals. Negative = Man United wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sunderland vs Man United with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sunderland vs Man United
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.54 (home – away), meaning the expected spread slightly favours United by just over half a goal. That fits with the win probabilities and recent form: United’s three straight wins have come with a combined +3 goal difference, whereas Sunderland’s last three show a -5 differential. Given United’s more solid averages at both ends, and Sunderland’s tendency to concede heavily when they lose, a narrow away victory is the likeliest outcome.

Final Prediction

United have the edge through better form, a stronger league position, and a more reliable defence, even if their attack isn’t free-scoring. Sunderland’s openness and recent defensive frailty could decide it. The key factor to watch will be how Sunderland’s back line copes with United’s pressure; if they crack early, the visitors’ superiority should tell over 90 minutes.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel