Premier League 2025-2026: Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Tottenham

Home Team
4%
VS

Arsenal

Away Team
91%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 23.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Tottenham L L D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 2)

Arsenal D D W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Tottenham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.52
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.80
# Clean Sheets: 0

Arsenal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.09
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.69
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are strong favourites here, with a huge 91.0% implied probability of an away win against a struggling Tottenham side that sits 16th, while Arsenal are top of the table in 1st place. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0% probability. A draw (5.0%) or home win (4.0%) are rated as long shots based on the current form and underlying numbers.

Match Analysis

Tottenham come into this North London clash on a poor run: back‑to‑back defeats to Newcastle (1–2) and Manchester United (0–2), followed by a 2–2 draw with Manchester City. Even at home they have been second-best in key moments, losing the corner count 2–12 to Newcastle and only drawing 3–4 with City. Defensively they look vulnerable: across their last five games they concede 1.8 goals on average, backed up by 1.796 expected goals against, and they have not kept a single clean sheet in that period. Arsenal, by contrast, are playing like leaders. They drew 2–2 at Wolves and 1–1 at Brentford before a commanding 3–0 home win over Sunderland, controlling both territory and chance creation in that last match (16–5 shots, 5–2 corners). Their recent averages underline a well-balanced side: 2.0 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded per game over the last five, with even stronger xG numbers (2.094 for, just 0.686 against) and two clean sheets. That blend of defensive solidity and consistent chance creation explains why they are clear favourites despite playing away.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 51.0% edges this towards a game with at least three goals. Two of Tottenham’s last three matches hit over 2.5 goals (1–2 v Newcastle, 2–2 v Man City), with only the 0–2 at United going under 2.5. Arsenal have had more mixed scorelines, with two under 2.5 (1–1 v Brentford, 3–0 v Sunderland is exactly 3 but still above the line in terms of total goals) and one clear over (2–2 v Wolves). With Spurs averaging 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, and Arsenal at 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, supported by strong xG for the visitors, a narrow lean to goals is justified.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total for the match is 23.36, consistent with a high-tempo derby where both teams create. Tottenham’s last three matches have seen them involved in games with big shot counts: 16–21, 7–23 and 12–15, regularly allowing opponents over 15 attempts. Arsenal’s recent fixtures (10–5, 7–12, 16–5) show that when they control games, they limit shots against while still racking up efforts of their own. Those patterns, combined with Arsenal’s xG of 2.094 per match, support a shots prediction in the low‑to‑mid 20s in total.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s edge comes from their superior league position, better recent results, and much stronger attacking and defensive metrics, all of which support them as clear favourites away from home. Tottenham’s leaky defence and lack of clean sheets could be exposed by Arsenal’s efficient attack. A key factor to watch will be whether Spurs can disrupt Arsenal’s controlled build-up and limit the visitors’ shot volume; if not, the league leaders are well placed to turn their dominance into three points.

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