Premier League 2025-2026: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Prediction - 5 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Tottenham

Home Team
32%
VS

Crystal Palace

Away Team
46%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Tottenham L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 2)

Crystal Palace L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Tottenham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.21
# Clean Sheets: 0

Crystal Palace

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.73
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Crystal Palace are slight favourites away from home, with a 46.0% chance of victory compared to Tottenham’s 32.0%, and a 22.0% probability of a draw. The model points towards an away win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both sides sitting in the bottom half: Palace are 14th on 35 points, while struggling Spurs are 16th with 29 points and edging a little too close to the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Tottenham come into this on a worrying run of three straight defeats: 1-2 at Fulham, followed by 1-4 and 1-2 home losses to Arsenal and Newcastle. The pattern is clear – they are scoring, but conceding far too easily, with 8 goals shipped in those three matches. Corner and shot numbers also show them second best: for example, they were out-cornered 2-12 and out-shot 16-21 by Newcastle at home, underlining how often they are being pushed back. Crystal Palace are inconsistent but a touch more stable. They edged Wolves 1-0 at home, and were competitive in 2-3 and 1-2 defeats to Burnley and Manchester United, creating plenty: 21 shots against Burnley and 14 versus Wolves. Over the last five games, Palace’s averages – 0.8 goals scored, 1.4 conceded, with 1.08 xG for and 1.73 xG against – paint a picture of a team that keeps games relatively tight, helped by two clean sheets in that spell. Spurs, by contrast, are more open: 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded per game, with xG numbers (1.33 for, 2.21 against) backing up the idea of a leaky defence.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5, despite a 49.0% probability for over 2.5 goals and an overall goal probability of 53.0%. Two of Tottenham’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 (1-4 v Arsenal, 2-3 v Newcastle), but Palace have seen two of their last three stay under – the 1-0 win over Wolves and the 1-2 loss at United. With both sides averaging modest xG (Spurs 1.33, Palace 1.08) and Palace tending to keep matches tight, the under 2.5 call looks like a cautious over 2.5 prediction hedge rather than an expectation of a goalfest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.01, which fits with both teams’ recent patterns. Tottenham’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 31, 26 and 37, indicating open games where their defence allowed plenty of efforts. Palace’s fixtures have been slightly more measured – 28, 26 and 29 total shots – but they do create a steady stream themselves. Given Spurs’ xG against (2.214) and Palace’s willingness to shoot (21 attempts v Burnley, 14 v Wolves), the shots prediction of around 25 expected shots seems realistic.

Final Prediction

Crystal Palace are favoured because they look more compact defensively and have steadier recent form than a Spurs side on a three-game losing streak and conceding too many chances. The key factor to watch will be whether Tottenham can tighten up at the back; if not, Palace’s more controlled approach and ability to rack up shots could tilt this tight, low-scoring contest their way.

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