Premier League 2025-2026: Tottenham vs Leeds Prediction - 11 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Tottenham

Home Team
47%
VS

Leeds

Away Team
28%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 23.9
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Tottenham W W D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 3)

Leeds W D W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Tottenham

xG (avg) 1.31
xGA (avg) 2.08
Clean Sheets 1

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.58
xGA (avg) 1.65
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Tottenham are marginally favoured at home, with a 47.0% chance of victory against Leeds’ 28.0%, and a 25.0% probability of a draw; the model leans towards a home win. The game is also tipped to be tight on the scoreboard, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% probability despite both teams’ attacking threat. In the table, Leeds sit 14th on 43 points, while Tottenham are 17th on 37 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulders at the relegation line.

Match Analysis

Tottenham come into this one on a three‑match unbeaten run: away wins at Aston Villa (2-1) and Wolves (1-0) followed by a 2-2 home draw with Brighton. It’s a much-needed response from a side with only 9 league wins all season and a -9 goal difference (45 scored, 54 conceded). The recent results hint at better balance, with a clean sheet at Molineux and a disciplined away performance at Villa Park, even if the overall five‑game averages still show Spurs conceding heavily (2.8 goals per game). Leeds, 14th but only six points clear of Spurs, have also hit a decent patch: a 3-1 home win over Burnley and a 3-0 victory over Wolves, either side of a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth. They’ve scored eight in those three games, with only three conceded, underlining a sharper attack. Their advanced numbers are slightly better than Tottenham’s at both ends: Leeds average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five, with xG for at 1.576 and xG against at 1.654, compared to Spurs’ 1.0 scored and a worrying 2.8 conceded (xG against 2.078). Even so, home advantage and the need for points push the probabilities just towards Tottenham.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 46.0% probability for over and therefore a slight edge for under 2.5. Recent scorelines suggest goals: 2 of Tottenham’s last 3 matches went over 2.5 (2-1, 2-2), with only the 1-0 at Wolves staying under, while 2 of Leeds’ last 3 also finished above the line (3-1, 3-0) with the 2-2 draw obviously clearing it as well. However, the five‑game averages – Spurs scoring just 1.0 but conceding 2.8, Leeds at 1.4 for and 1.2 against with xG figures of 1.31 vs 1.576 – support a slightly more cautious over 2.5 prediction stance and justify the call for a tight scoreline.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Tottenham
Corners in last 5 matches
Leeds
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 10.19 total, pointing towards a fairly lively game in wide areas. Tottenham’s last three have produced 10, 10 and 12 corners (5-5 vs Villa, 5-5 vs Wolves, 7-5 vs Brighton), matching that expected range. Leeds have been more erratic – 5-0 vs Burnley, 1-12 at Bournemouth, 5-6 vs Wolves – but in aggregate they also hover around that mark, suggesting the predicted corners figure is in line with two sides comfortable attacking down the flanks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches
Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.87, which fits neatly with both teams’ recent output. Tottenham’s last three games saw 10, 11 and 13 attempts, while they allowed 5, 11 and 10 – numbers that cluster around that 20–25 range. Leeds, meanwhile, fired 18, 10 and 17 shots and conceded 9, 17 and 7, underlining why the shots prediction anticipates a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers and marrying up with the xG profiles of 1.31 and 1.576 respectively.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Tottenham wins by X goals. Negative = Leeds wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Tottenham vs Leeds with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Tottenham vs Leeds
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is a narrow +0.22 in Tottenham’s favour, effectively calling for a one‑goal home edge or even a draw. Over the last three, Spurs have a combined goal difference of +2 (5 scored, 3 conceded), while Leeds sit at +5 (8 scored, 3 conceded), which explains why the expected spread is small despite the home slightly preferred. With a 47.0% home win chance against 28.0% for Leeds, the expected spread reflects Tottenham’s home advantage more than any clear superiority in either attack or defence.

Final Prediction

Tottenham’s edge comes from playing at home and their recent uptick in results, even if the underlying defensive numbers remain shaky. Leeds arrive with more momentum in front of goal, but their own xG against figure shows they can be opened up. The key factor to watch will be how Tottenham’s back line copes with Leeds’ direct, confident attacking – if Spurs can keep things tight, the narrow home win the model predicts looks the most likely outcome.

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