Premier League 2025-2026: Tottenham vs Nott'm Forest Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Tottenham

Home Team
49%
VS

Nott'm Forest

Away Team
27%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 30 15 9 6 54 41 13 54
4 Aston Villa 30 15 6 9 40 37 3 51
5 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 49 40 9 49
6 Chelsea 30 13 9 8 53 35 18 48
7 Brentford 30 13 6 11 46 42 4 45
8 Everton 30 12 7 11 34 35 -1 43
9 Newcastle 30 12 6 12 43 43 0 42
10 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 44 46 -2 41
11 Fulham 30 12 5 13 40 43 -3 41
12 Brighton 30 10 10 10 39 36 3 40
13 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 30 35 -5 40
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 30 7 11 12 37 48 -11 32
16 Tottenham 30 7 9 14 40 47 -7 30
17 Nott'm Forest 30 7 8 15 28 43 -15 29
18 West Ham 30 7 8 15 36 55 -19 29
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 32 58 -26 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Tottenham D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)

Nott'm Forest D D L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Tottenham

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 2.50
Clean Sheets 0

Nott'm Forest

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 2.21
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Tottenham are slight favourites at home, with a 49.0% chance of victory against a Nott'm Forest side given a 27.0% shot of an upset and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction despite both teams’ defensive issues. In the table, Spurs sit 16th on 30 points, just one place and one point above Forest in 17th, underlining how high the stakes are at the bottom end of the Premier League.

Match Analysis

Tottenham come into this one on a three‑game winless run: draws at Liverpool (1-1) sandwiched by defeats to Crystal Palace (1-3) and Fulham (1-2). They have at least been competitive in terms of volume – 13 shots at Anfield and at Fulham, plus 12 at home to Palace – but they’re conceding plenty at the other end, with 17, 18 and 9 shots faced respectively. The advanced numbers tell a similar story: 1.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded on average in their last five, with 1.304 xG for and 2.504 xG against, and no clean sheets in that spell. This is a side still creating enough to score, but far too open and reliant on outscoring opponents. Forest, by contrast, look slightly more balanced of late. They’ve drawn their last two – 0-0 at home to Fulham and an impressive 2-2 away at Man City – after a narrow 1-2 defeat at Brighton. Over those three, they’ve shown they can be stubborn (two goals conceded in two tricky away trips) and compact at times, as that clean sheet against Fulham suggests. The recent five‑game averages show 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with 1.278 xG for and 2.21 xG against and two clean sheets, so they’re not bulletproof, but they are better at managing games than Spurs at the moment.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards under 2.5 with a 53.0% implied probability against 47.0% for over, making “under 2.5” the headline call. Two of Tottenham’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (1-3 v Palace, 1-2 v Fulham), with only the 1-1 at Liverpool staying under, but their recent xG profile – 1.304 for, 2.504 against – suggests a lot of their chaos comes from defensive lapses rather than sustained attacking power. For Forest, two of their last three have also gone over (2-2 at City, 1-2 at Brighton), but the 0-0 with Fulham hints at a team capable of slowing the game down; their 1.6 goals scored and conceded on average, plus modest 1.278 xG going forward, support a tight over 2.5 prediction market where the value sits slightly on the under 2.5 side.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Tottenham
Corners in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 9.78, pointing towards a fairly typical Premier League game, not an end‑to‑end barrage. Tottenham’s last three have produced 7, 9 and 13 corners respectively (they took 4, 6 and 8 themselves), reflecting a team that attacks but often from patient build‑up rather than constant wing bombardment. Forest’s recent games have seen 9 corners v Fulham, 7 at Man City and 8 at Brighton, again hovering around that 8–10 range; with both sides likely to probe rather than play helter‑skelter, the corners prediction around 10 looks well set.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s expected shots figure is 24.66 in total, suggesting a game with a decent amount of goalmouth action but not a shot-fest. Spurs’ recent outings support this: combined shots tallies of 30 at Liverpool, 21 v Palace and 31 at Fulham show they’re regularly involved in matches in the low‑ to mid‑20s and beyond, with their own numbers consistently at 12–13 attempts. Forest’s last three have seen total shots of 16, 30 and 27, again clustering around that range; their 1.278 xG for in the last five matches points to a team needing multiple efforts to fashion high‑quality chances, which aligns cleanly with this shots prediction.

Final Prediction

Tottenham’s marginal edge comes from home advantage and a slightly stronger attacking volume, reflected in the 49.0% win probability. Forest, though, have been more controlled defensively and arrive with a touch more confidence from recent results. The key factor to watch will be how Forest’s more compact shape copes with Spurs’ shot volume: if the visitors can limit big chances, this could quickly turn into the tight, low‑scoring battle the metrics are hinting at.

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