Premier League 2025-2026: West Ham vs Bournemouth Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

West Ham

Home Team
31%
VS

Bournemouth

Away Team
46%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

West Ham D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)

Bournemouth W D W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

West Ham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.38
# Clean Sheets: 1

Bournemouth

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.15
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.12
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bournemouth are slight favourites away from home, with a 46.0% chance of winning compared to West Ham’s 31.0%, and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model’s predicted result is an away win, with goals expected: the over 2.5 prediction is backed by a 53.0% probability. In the table, Bournemouth are 9th on 37 points, while West Ham sit 18th on 24 points and are fighting to get out of the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

West Ham come into this with mixed but competitive form: a battling 1-1 home draw against 4th-placed Man United, a 2-0 away win at Burnley, and a narrow 3-2 defeat at Chelsea. Those three games show they can score (five goals in three matches) but also remain vulnerable at the back, conceding in two of the three. Their recent advanced numbers are fairly balanced: 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average in the last five, with xG for at 1.732 and xG against at 1.384, and just one clean sheet. That suggests performances slightly better than their league position, but defensive security is still fragile. Bournemouth, in contrast, look like a mid-table side in good rhythm. They’ve beaten Everton 2-1 away, drawn 1-1 with high-flying Aston Villa at home, and won 2-0 at Wolves, taking seven points from nine. The underlying figures are lively: 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average over the last five, and very attacking xG numbers – 2.15 created and 2.122 conceded per game. They also have only one clean sheet in that period, underlining that their matches tend to be open, with both teams finding chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%. Two of West Ham’s last three matches went under 2.5 (2-0 vs Burnley, 1-1 vs Man United) and one went over (3-2 vs Chelsea). Bournemouth mirror that: two unders (2-0 at Wolves, 1-1 vs Villa) and one over (2-1 at Everton). However, both teams’ five-game averages – West Ham at 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, Bournemouth at 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded – plus strong xG numbers on both sides, point towards enough chances being created for this to tip over the line.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 24.95, pointing to a game where both sides create a steady stream of efforts rather than a one-sided barrage. West Ham’s last three games saw combined shot counts of 16, 24, and 25, while Bournemouth’s produced 27, 27, and 26 total shots respectively. Those numbers align closely with the shots prediction, and with both teams’ relatively high xG figures, fans can reasonably expect a match with frequent attempts on goal and several dangerous moments.

Final Prediction

Bournemouth’s higher league position, stronger recent points return, and more aggressive attacking metrics give them a slight edge going into this fixture. West Ham’s home advantage and decent xG trend mean they are far from out of it, but their defensive inconsistency is a concern. A key factor to watch will be how Bournemouth’s attack tests West Ham’s back line; if the visitors impose their chance-creating rhythm early, the predicted away win and over 2.5 goals could well materialise.

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