Premier League 2025-2026: West Ham vs Everton Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

West Ham

Home Team
57%
VS

Everton

Away Team
22%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
2 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

West Ham D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)

Everton L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

West Ham

xG (avg) 1.77
xGA (avg) 0.90
Clean Sheets 3

Everton

xG (avg) 1.67
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

West Ham are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 57.0% chance of victory compared to Everton’s 22.0%, and a 21.0% probability of a draw. The model points towards a tight home win combined with an under 2.5 prediction on goals. In the table, Everton sit a comfortable 10th on 47 points, while West Ham are 17th on 33 and still glancing anxiously over their shoulder at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

West Ham come into this with cautious optimism. A 4-0 dismantling of Wolves at home showcased their attacking potential, while a disciplined 0-0 at Crystal Palace underlined new-found defensive steel. The 2-0 defeat at Aston Villa reminded everyone of their vulnerability away, but at home they’ve looked sharper. Over their last five matches, they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, with 1.77 xG for and 0.90 xG against, plus three clean sheets – numbers that back up this recent upturn. Everton, in mid-table, have been more up and down. They hammered Chelsea 3-0 at Goodison and battled to a 2-2 draw at Brentford, but slipped to a narrow 2-1 defeat in the Merseyside derby against Liverpool. Their advanced metrics suggest a more open, less controlled side than West Ham right now: 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game in the last five, with 1.67 xG for but a higher 1.78 xG against. That balance – creating but also allowing plenty – is exactly what tilts the match winner probabilities slightly further towards the home side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 46.0% chance of over 2.5 and a clearer edge towards the lower scoreline. Two of West Ham’s last three have finished under (0-0 vs Palace, 0-2 vs Villa), with only the 4-0 over Wolves going past the line. Everton, by contrast, have gone over 2.5 in all three of their recent games (1-2, 2-2, 3-0). However, West Ham’s recent defensive record – just 0.6 conceded per game and sub-1.0 xG against – supports a tight contest, making an under 2.5 outcome a reasonable over 2.5 prediction alternative to oppose.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

West Ham
Corners in last 5 matches
Everton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.91 total corners, essentially a high-single-figure, low-double-figure match. West Ham’s last three have seen 10, 7 and 12 corners, while Everton’s have produced 7, 5 and 12, suggesting both sides can fluctuate depending on game state. With West Ham likely to probe at home and Everton dangerous on transitions, a total close to the predicted corners figure around 10 looks well supported by recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches
Everton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots tally is 25.59, which fits with how both teams have been playing. West Ham’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 18, 32 and 32, and Everton’s 24, 31 and 22. Both sides are regularly in the mid-20s or above for total shots, and their recent xG numbers point to teams that do pull the trigger when they get into the final third, making this shots prediction very much in line with current form.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = West Ham wins by X goals. Negative = Everton wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for West Ham vs Everton with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for West Ham vs Everton
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has West Ham at -0.45, meaning the expected spread is that the home side win by roughly half a goal. West Ham’s last three show a +2 goal difference (4-0, 0-0, 0-2), while Everton sit at +1 (3-0, 2-2, 1-2), so both are competitive. However, West Ham’s stronger defensive numbers and home advantage are what push the expected spread slightly in their favour and align with the 57.0% home-win probability.

Final Prediction

West Ham’s recent defensive solidity, improved xG profile and home form give them the edge over an Everton side that creates chances but leaves gaps. If the hosts can control the tempo and keep Everton’s forwards at arm’s length, their slight attacking superiority should tell. The key factor to watch will be West Ham’s ability to turn territorial pressure into clear chances in what is projected to be a relatively low-scoring battle.

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