Premier League 2025-2026: West Ham vs Man City Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

West Ham

Home Team
4%
VS

Man City

Away Team
92%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Shots: 24.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

West Ham W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)

Man City D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

West Ham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.97
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.27
# Clean Sheets: 3

Man City

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.64
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Manchester City are clear favourites here, with a 92.0% probability of an away win against a West Ham side sitting 18th and fighting relegation. Second-placed City are expected to control the game, but the model leans towards a tight affair in front of goal, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite City’s superiority. The draw (5.0%) and home win (4.0%) probabilities underline just how tilted this looks on paper.

Match Analysis

West Ham come into this after a gritty 1-0 win at Fulham, a heavy 5-2 defeat at Liverpool and a goalless home draw with Bournemouth. That run captures their inconsistency: capable of disciplined away performances and solid home control (20 shots vs Bournemouth) but also vulnerable to being blown away by stronger attacks. The Hammers have quietly put together 3 clean sheets in their last 5, supported by just 1.2 goals conceded on average and only 1.266 expected goals against per game – numbers that suggest their defence is more solid than their league position implies. City, meanwhile, have stuttered a little in front of goal recently. They drew 2-2 at home to Nottingham Forest, edged Leeds 1-0 away and beat Newcastle 2-1 at the Etihad. Over the last five, they’re averaging only 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per match, but the underlying creation is far better: 1.95 expected goals for and 1.636 against. That gap between xG and actual goals hints at wastefulness in attack and the odd defensive lapse, but also that City are consistently generating chances and should eventually be rewarded.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans under 2.5 with a 47.0% probability, which is notable given City’s attacking reputation. Two of West Ham’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (2-5 vs Liverpool, 1-0 vs Fulham, 0-0 vs Bournemouth), while two of City’s last three also cleared the line (2-2 vs Forest, 1-0 vs Leeds, 2-1 vs Newcastle). Still, West Ham’s recent averages – 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded, backed by 1.972 xG for and 1.266 against – and City’s low actual output of 1.0 goal per match point to a cagey encounter, supporting an under 2.5 call despite what the xG numbers might suggest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches
Man City
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.73 for this match feels realistic. West Ham have been involved in shot-heavy contests, with totals of 23 (vs Fulham), 29 (vs Liverpool) and 30 (vs Bournemouth), suggesting an open feel even when the goals don’t flow. City’s last three – 30, 28 and 28 total shots – underline how their sustained attacking play, underpinned by 1.95 xG per game, should keep the shots prediction high even if the finishing is not at its sharpest.

Final Prediction

City have the edge through superior quality, deeper squad and far stronger league position, and the 92.0% away-win probability reflects that gulf. West Ham’s recent defensive numbers give them a puncher’s chance of keeping things tight, but they’ll likely spend long spells without the ball. The key factor to watch will be whether City can finally align their strong chance creation with clinical finishing, or if West Ham’s improving rearguard can turn this into a nervy, low-scoring scrap.

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