Premier League 2025-2026: West Ham vs Wolves Prediction - 10 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

West Ham

Home Team
58%
VS

Wolves

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 24.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 31 15 10 6 56 43 13 55
4 Aston Villa 31 16 6 9 42 37 5 54
5 Liverpool 31 14 7 10 50 42 8 49
6 Chelsea 31 13 9 9 53 38 15 48
7 Brentford 31 13 7 11 46 42 4 46
8 Everton 31 13 7 11 37 35 2 46
9 Fulham 31 13 5 13 43 44 -1 44
10 Brighton 31 11 10 10 41 37 4 43
11 Sunderland 31 11 10 10 32 36 -4 43
12 Newcastle 31 12 6 13 44 45 -1 42
13 Bournemouth 31 9 15 7 46 48 -2 42
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 31 7 12 12 37 48 -11 33
16 Nott'm Forest 31 8 8 15 31 43 -12 32
17 Tottenham 31 7 9 15 40 50 -10 30
18 West Ham 31 7 8 16 36 57 -21 29
19 Burnley 31 4 8 19 33 61 -28 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

West Ham L D W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)

Wolves D W W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

West Ham

xG (avg) 1.61
xGA (avg) 1.04
Clean Sheets 2

Wolves

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 2.25
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

West Ham are favoured to take a vital home win, with a 58.0% probability of victory against bottom‑placed Wolves, who are given just a 21.0% chance, with the draw also at 21.0%. The model points towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% and both teams expected to score. West Ham come into this in 18th place on 29 points, while Wolves are 20th with 17 points, making this a classic relegation six-pointer.

Match Analysis

West Ham’s last three games have been gritty rather than glamorous, but they’ve taken four valuable points. A 1-0 away win at Fulham and a 1-1 home draw with Man City underline their resilience, especially given they were out-shot 24–1 by City yet still found a result. The 2-0 loss at Aston Villa shows their limitations against top sides, but overall they’ve tightened up: over the last five matches they’ve scored 1.2 goals per game, conceded just 1.0, and kept two clean sheets. Crucially, their attacking process looks healthier than the raw goals suggest, with 1.614 expected goals per match. Wolves, despite sitting last, arrive on a quietly improving run: unbeaten in three with wins over Liverpool (2-1) and Aston Villa (2-0), plus a 2-2 draw away at Brentford. That’s seven points from nine, and eight goals scored across those fixtures, suggesting more cutting edge lately. However, the deeper numbers paint a warning: across their last five, they average only 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with just one clean sheet. More telling is that they’ve allowed 2.246 expected goals per game while creating only 1.028, hinting that they’ve been riding their luck defensively and could struggle to contain sustained pressure at the London Stadium.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it at 53.0%, and the recent scorelines support the idea of goals rather than a cagey stalemate. Two of Wolves’ last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Brentford, 2-1 vs Liverpool), while all three of West Ham’s most recent games have finished under 2.5 (2, 2 and 1 total goals). Even so, West Ham’s averages of 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, combined with 1.614 xG for and 1.038 xG against, suggest chances at both ends, and Wolves’ high xG conceded (2.246) points towards their defence eventually being punished.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

West Ham
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 10.21, which fits a match likely to swing back and forth rather than be one-way traffic. West Ham’s last three games have produced 12, 16 and 12 corners respectively, often with them conceding plenty as they soak up pressure. Wolves have seen more modest totals – 6, 13 and 5 – but their willingness to counter and shoot from promising positions should still generate set-piece situations. With both sides needing a result and likely to commit players forward, this corners prediction of around ten feels in line with two direct, hard‑running teams.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.95 suggests a reasonably busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. West Ham’s recent outings show extremes: just 1 shot against Man City but 9 attempts in both the Fulham and Villa matches, while allowing 23 and 24 shots in two of those fixtures. Wolves, meanwhile, have taken 13, 4 and 9 shots in their last three, conceding 10, 19 and 14. Those volumes, together with West Ham’s stronger xG of 1.614 and Wolves’ openness at the back (2.246 xG conceded), support a shots prediction close to 25 as both sides look to turn territorial pressure into clear chances.

Final Prediction

West Ham’s superior underlying numbers, home advantage and Wolves’ vulnerability in expected goals against give the hosts the clearer edge in this relegation battle. Wolves’ recent headline results keep it interesting, but their tendency to concede chances could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be whether West Ham can turn their xG dominance into early goals, or if Wolves can once again punch above their defensive numbers and frustrate the London Stadium.

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