Premier League 2025-2026: Wolves vs Arsenal Prediction - 18 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Wolves

Home Team
1%
VS

Arsenal

Away Team
97%
Draw: 2%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 22.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 26 17 6 3 50 18 32 57
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 26 1 6 19 16 48 -32 9

Recent Trends

Wolves D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 0)

Arsenal D W W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.42
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.59
# Clean Sheets: 2

Arsenal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.69
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are overwhelming favourites here, with a 97.0% probability of an away win against bottom‑placed Wolves, who have just a 1.0% chance of victory and 2.0% for the draw. Top of the Premier League on 57 points, Arsenal face a Wolves side rooted to 20th with only 9 points from 26 games. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Wolves come into this meeting in dire form: one draw and two defeats from their last three. They’ve taken just a point from fixtures against Nott’m Forest (0-0 away), Chelsea (1-3 at home) and Bournemouth (0-2 at home), scoring only once and conceding five. Interestingly, they’ve not been completely toothless in terms of chance creation – 17 shots against Bournemouth and 11 versus Chelsea – but they’ve failed to turn that into goals, and their league position (1 win in 26) underlines how costly that has been. Arsenal, in contrast, look controlled and efficient. They’ve taken seven points from their last three matches: a 1-1 draw at Brentford, a comfortable 3-0 home win over Sunderland, and a dominant 4-0 victory away at Leeds. Across their last five games, Arsenal are averaging 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, with 3 clean sheets, backed up by strong attacking underlying numbers (2.062 expected goals per match) and a very solid defence (0.694 expected goals against). Wolves’ last five show 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, with xG of 1.422 for and 1.592 against – competitive on paper, but not enough end product at either end. Taken together, the numbers point clearly towards Arsenal’s superior balance and finishing.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours goals here with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% probability. Two of Wolves’ last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (1-3 vs Chelsea, 0-2 vs Bournemouth, 0-0 vs Nott’m Forest), while two of Arsenal’s last three also cleared the line (3-0 vs Sunderland, 4-0 vs Leeds, plus the 1-1 at Brentford). With Arsenal averaging 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded and Wolves at 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, combined with their respective xG figures, there is enough attacking threat from Arsenal and defensive vulnerability from Wolves to justify a slight lean towards over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.21, suggesting a moderately active game in wide areas. Wolves’ recent corner numbers have been mixed: 2-8 at Nott’m Forest, 3-4 against Chelsea, and 5-6 versus Bournemouth, often allowing their opponents to rack up more. Arsenal’s last three show a team capable of sustained pressure: 4-6 at Brentford, 5-2 against Sunderland, and a big 12-4 advantage at Leeds. Given Arsenal’s front-foot style and territorial control, this corners prediction fits a pattern where the league leaders spend much of the match in the Wolves half.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 22.14, pointing to a game where Arsenal should generate the bulk of the attempts. Wolves’ last three outings saw them take 7, 11 and 17 shots, but they also allowed 35 from Nott’m Forest, 15 from Chelsea and 9 from Bournemouth, reflecting a side often under siege. Arsenal, meanwhile, posted 7 shots at Brentford, 16 against Sunderland and 14 at Leeds, in line with their strong attacking xG of 2.062. That combination of volume and quality supports a shots prediction in which Arsenal’s pressure drives most of the expected shots in the match.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s edge is clear: they sit top of the table, boast better form, superior underlying numbers at both ends, and face a Wolves side struggling badly in front of goal and stuck at the foot of the league. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Arsenal can turn their territorial dominance into goals; if they score early, the gap in confidence and quality between the teams could become very evident.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel