Premier League 2025-2026: Wolves vs Aston Villa Prediction - 27 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Wolves

Home Team
16%
VS

Aston Villa

Away Team
70%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Wolves L D D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 2)

Aston Villa D W D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.68
# Clean Sheets: 1

Aston Villa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.81
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.30
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Aston Villa are strong favourites here, with a 70.0% probability of taking all three points away to bottom‑placed Wolves, who have just 10 points from 28 games and only one league win all season. The model leans towards a tight affair in front of goal, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0% despite Villa sitting 3rd in the table on 51 points and chasing Champions League football.

Match Analysis

Wolves come into this desperate for a lifeline. They’ve drawn two of their last three – 2-2 at home to Arsenal and 0-0 away at Nottingham Forest – either side of a 1-0 defeat at Crystal Palace. Those results show a team that can occasionally frustrate bigger sides but struggles to convert pressure into wins. Across their last five games they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with expected goals at 1.202 for and 1.682 against, underlining the gap between what they create and what they allow at the other end. One clean sheet in that spell reflects a fragile back line. Aston Villa, by contrast, look more stable even if their recent form has been steady rather than spectacular: a 1-0 home win over Brighton is sandwiched by 1-1 draws with Leeds and Bournemouth. They are difficult to beat and show good balance, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five. Interestingly, their xG numbers – 1.808 for and 2.298 against – suggest games that are more open than the scorelines indicate, but two clean sheets in that same period point to a side that can shut things down when needed. With Villa 3rd and Wolves 20th, the gulf in consistency and confidence is reflected in the heavy away-win probability of 70.0%.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 47.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, so the under 2.5 call edges the over 2.5 prediction. Two of Wolves’ last three matches have gone under 2.5 goals (1-0 at Palace, 0-0 at Forest), with only the 2-2 draw against Arsenal clearing that line. Villa have seen all three of their recent games finish under – 1-1 vs Leeds, 1-0 vs Brighton, 1-1 at Bournemouth. With both teams averaging 1.2 goals scored over their last five and Wolves conceding 1.4 to Villa’s 1.2, plus relatively modest xG figures, a low‑scoring contest looks more likely than a shoot‑out.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches
Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 25.02 anticipates a game where Villa do most of the attacking but Wolves still pose some threat. Recently Wolves have taken 12, 5 and 7 shots, while facing 14, 10 and a huge 35 efforts, underlining how often they are pinned back. Villa have registered 16, 15 and 7 shots in their last three, conceding 14, 9 and 20. Those numbers, allied to Villa’s higher attacking xG of 1.808, support a shots prediction in the mid‑20s with the visitors likely to dominate the shot count.

Final Prediction

Aston Villa’s superior league position, more reliable defensive record and stronger underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a Wolves side rooted to the foot of the table and leaking chances. If Villa impose their usual attacking rhythm, their quality in both boxes should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Wolves can absorb Villa’s pressure without collapsing under the volume of shots and corners that the visitors typically generate.

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