Premier League 2025-2026: Wolves vs Chelsea Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Wolves

Home Team
11%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
79%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Wolves L L D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 0)

Chelsea W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.65
# Clean Sheets: 2

Chelsea

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.86
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.76
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are strong favourites here, with a 79.0% probability of an away win against bottom‑placed Wolves, who have just 8 points from 24 games. Fifth‑placed Chelsea (40 points) are pushing for the Champions League spots and are expected to underline that with a victory. The game is also projected to be open: there’s a 53.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55.0% probability that both teams score.

Match Analysis

Wolves come into this in deep trouble: 1 win all season, 5 draws, 18 defeats and a heavy -30 goal difference (15 scored, 45 conceded). Their last three matches tell a similar story – back‑to‑back 2–0 defeats to Bournemouth and Manchester City followed by a goalless draw with Newcastle. They’ve averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last five games, with expected goals (xG) at 1.252 for and 1.65 against, suggesting they create a bit more than they actually finish but remain second best in most areas. Chelsea, by contrast, arrive on a three‑match winning run: 3–2 vs West Ham, 3–1 at Crystal Palace, and 2–0 over Brentford. Their league position (5th) and +15 goal difference (42 scored, 27 conceded) back up that form. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with healthier xG numbers – 1.856 for and 1.762 against – indicating they consistently carve out chances and can outgun opponents even if they don’t shut teams out regularly.

Final Prediction

Chelsea’s superior league position, recent three‑game winning streak, and stronger attacking metrics give them a clear edge over a Wolves side struggling badly at both ends of the pitch. The numbers point towards Chelsea having enough firepower to turn their chances into goals. A key factor to watch will be whether Wolves can convert their modest xG into actual goals against a Chelsea defence that, while not impenetrable, has been doing just enough during their current run.

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