Premier League 2025-2026: Wolves vs Fulham Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wolves

Home Team
31%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
44%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: -0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 42 79
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 15 65
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 12 59
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 4 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 36 14 11 11 52 42 10 53
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 3 51
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46
14 Leeds 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 36 11 11 14 38 47 -9 44
16 Nott'm Forest 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21
20 Wolves 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Wolves L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 4)

Fulham L L W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

xG (avg) 1.01
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 0

Fulham

xG (avg) 1.20
xGA (avg) 2.20
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are slight favourites to take all three points at Molineux, with a 44.0% chance of an away win compared to 31.0% for Wolves and 25.0% for the draw. The model points towards a tight Fulham victory in a low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (45.0% probability) edging it. In the table, Fulham sit 11th on 48 points, while Wolves are bottom in 20th with 18 points and staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

Wolves come into this one with just one point from their last three matches: a 0-3 defeat at Brighton, a 1-1 draw at home to Sunderland and a 0-1 home loss to Tottenham. The pattern is clear – they are struggling badly for results, and while they’ve been competitive in spells (notably limiting Spurs to parity on shots at 11-11), they’ve failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last five games. Their recent averages reflect that fragility: 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over the last five sounds reasonable, but their expected goals against is higher at 1.494, suggesting opponents are creating enough to hurt them. Fulham’s form is mixed but steadier: a 1-0 home win over Aston Villa was followed by back‑to‑back defeats, 0-3 at Arsenal and 0-1 at home to Bournemouth. They’ve only scored twice across those three matches and have been blunt in front of goal, with an average of just 0.6 goals scored in their last five games. However, their xG for that period stands at 1.202, hinting they are fashioning better chances than the scorelines suggest, even if they’re not taking them. Defensively, 1.2 goals conceded per game with two clean sheets in five and an xG against of 2.204 shows they’re often under pressure but can still grind out results.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 45.0% probability, and the recent numbers support that under 2.5 call. Two of Wolves’ last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (1-1 vs Sunderland, 0-1 vs Tottenham), while Fulham have seen all three of their most recent games end under 2.5 (1-0, 0-3, 0-1). With Wolves averaging 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Fulham at 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus relatively modest xG figures on both sides, a cagey game fits the over 2.5 prediction market leaning towards under 2.5 rather than a goalfest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches
Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for the corners prediction is 9.4, pointing to a moderate tally rather than a flurry from both sides. Wolves’ last three have produced 7, 9 and 10 corners respectively, while Fulham’s have seen 7, 7 and a remarkable 13 against Bournemouth, where Fulham alone earned 11. Fulham’s tendency to rack up corners when chasing games, combined with Wolves’ more sporadic attacking bursts, underpins the predicted corners range just below double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches
Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 24.51 expected shots in total, suggesting a match with a fair amount of goalmouth action but not a siege. Wolves’ recent games have featured 19, 30 and 16 total shots, while Fulham’s have come in at 23, 28 and 24, numbers that broadly fit that expected shots band. Given Wolves’ xG of 1.008 and Fulham’s 1.202 over their last five matches, both sides are creating but not at a rampant rate, reinforcing the idea of plenty of attempts without necessarily translating into many goals.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wolves wins by X goals. Negative = Fulham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wolves vs Fulham with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wolves vs Fulham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of -0.19 (home minus away), which marginally favours Fulham. Wolves’ recent goal differences of -3 (0-3), 0 (1-1) and -1 (0-1) underline their struggles in both boxes, while Fulham’s -2 (0-2 over their last three on aggregate) is slightly less severe and includes a narrow win. That small negative spread ties in with Fulham’s higher win probability and their relatively stronger defensive record, hinting at a narrow away success rather than a dominant display.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s edge comes from their more solid position in mid‑table, slightly stronger recent defensive record and a higher probability of victory in the model. Wolves, anchored to 20th, have not turned territory and effort into wins, especially at home. The key factor to watch will be whether Fulham can convert their xG into actual goals against a Wolves side that has yet to find a reliable formula at either end of the pitch.

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