Premier League 2025-2026: Wolves vs Liverpool Prediction - 3 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Wolves

Home Team
3%
VS

Liverpool

Away Team
93%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 24.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Wolves W L D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 3)

Liverpool W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.90
# Clean Sheets: 2

Liverpool

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.69
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.25
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are strong favourites here, with a 93.0% probability of an away win against bottom‑placed Wolves, who have just a 3.0% chance of victory and sit 20th with 13 points from 29 games. Fifth‑placed Liverpool, on 48 points from 28 matches, are backed not only to take all three points but also to be involved in a relatively open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% likelihood. A goal for at least one side is rated at 55.0%, underlining expectations of attacking intent despite the gulf in class.

Match Analysis

Wolves come into this one with some renewed spirit but still mired in trouble. A 2–0 home win over Aston Villa and a 2–2 draw with league leaders Arsenal show they can raise their level at Molineux, even if a 1–0 defeat at Crystal Palace underlined how fragile they remain. Across their last five games they’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, and their xG numbers – 1.056 for and a worrying 1.896 against – suggest they are often second best in terms of chances created and allowed. Liverpool, by contrast, arrive on a three‑match winning streak that has steadied their push for a top‑five finish. A 5–2 demolition of West Ham showcased their attacking ceiling, while grinding out back‑to‑back 1–0 away wins at Nott’m Forest and Sunderland highlighted a more controlled side of their game. Over the last five fixtures they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with stronger underlying numbers than Wolves: 1.692 xG for and 1.248 xG against, pointing to a team consistently creating more and better openings than their opponents.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 54.0%, nudging this clash towards a match with goals rather than a tight, low‑scoring affair. Two of Wolves’ last three games went over 2.5 goals (2–0 vs Villa, 0–1 vs Palace, 2–2 vs Arsenal), while only one of Liverpool’s last three cleared that mark (5–2 vs West Ham, followed by two 1–0 wins). Even so, Wolves’ average of 1.4 goals conceded with 1.896 xG against, coupled with Liverpool’s higher 1.692 xG for, supports the idea that a superior Liverpool attack can drag the game towards over 2.5 rather than under 2.5.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 24.6 expected shots in total, suggesting a game where Liverpool do most of the shooting. Wolves’ recent shot numbers – 9–14 vs Villa, 12–14 at Palace and 5–10 vs Arsenal – show they are habitually out‑shot, a trend mirrored in their higher xG conceded. Liverpool’s last three matches have brought shot counts of 18–11, 10–18 and 23–11, underlining both their capacity to pepper the goal and their ability to limit opponents when on top. Those figures sit comfortably with the expected shots figure and with Liverpool’s superior attacking metrics.

Final Prediction

Liverpool’s edge lies in almost every key area: league position, recent form, xG profile and their ability to control both territory and chances, which explains the 93.0% win probability. Wolves have shown they can be awkward at home, but their defensive numbers and lowly standing point to a long afternoon if Liverpool hit their stride. The key factor to watch will be whether Wolves can withstand Liverpool’s sustained pressure in terms of shots and corners, or whether an early breakthrough turns this into the one‑sided contest the numbers predict.

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