Premier League 2025-2026: Wolves vs Sunderland Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wolves

Home Team
57%
VS

Sunderland

Away Team
22%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 34 22 7 5 64 26 38 73
2 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
3 Man United 34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 Liverpool 34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston Villa 34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 Fulham 34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 Everton 34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 Sunderland 34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46
13 Crystal Palace 33 11 10 12 36 39 -3 43
14 Newcastle 34 12 6 16 46 50 -4 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 34 10 9 15 41 45 -4 39
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 42 58 -16 36
18 Tottenham 34 8 10 16 43 53 -10 34
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 34 3 8 23 24 62 -38 17

Recent Trends

Wolves L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)

Sunderland L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

xG (avg) 0.84
xGA (avg) 2.06
Clean Sheets 0

Sunderland

xG (avg) 1.32
xGA (avg) 1.81
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Wolves are marginally favoured at home, with a 57.0% chance of victory against Sunderland’s 22.0%, despite sitting bottom of the Premier League in 20th on 17 points, while Sunderland are 12th on 46 points. The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% implied probability. A home win in a nervy relegation scrap is the baseline call.

Match Analysis

Wolves come into this under heavy pressure after three straight defeats: 0-1 at home to Tottenham, 0-3 away at Leeds and 0-4 away at West Ham. The alarming trend is their blunt attack – no goals in those three games – combined with a defence that has been repeatedly exposed. Over the last five matches they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, but the recent slump and a league-worst goal difference of -38 suggest a side struggling to turn performances into points. Sunderland’s form has also dipped, with back-to-back losses – 0-5 at home to Nott’m Forest and 3-4 away at Aston Villa – bookended by a gritty 1-0 home win over Tottenham. They have shown more attacking punch than Wolves, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across their last five, but that comes with defensive vulnerabilities. The xG numbers underline the picture: Wolves create less (0.838 xG for, 2.062 against on average) and concede better chances, while Sunderland’s 1.316 xG for and 1.814 against point to a more open, chance-heavy style that could still be reined in at Molineux.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
The match model leans under 2.5 with a 48.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, so the under 2.5 is very slightly preferred. Two of Wolves’ last three games went over 2.5 goals (0-3, 0-4), but that was almost entirely due to their opponents, while the other finished 0-1. Sunderland have been involved in two high‑scoring contests (3-4, 0-5) and one under (1-0). With both sides averaging 1.4 goals scored recently but Wolves’ xG attack particularly low, the over 2.5 prediction is less convincing than a cagey, low‑margin encounter.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.6 total corners, so roughly 9–10 on the day. Wolves’ last three matches produced 10, 11 and 7 corners; Sunderland’s yielded 9, 9 and 8. Neither side is relentlessly front-foot, but both have conceded territory and shots, which naturally generates predicted corners even when their own attacking play is inconsistent.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.49, suggesting a moderate-volume game rather than an end-to-end shootout. Wolves’ recent outings saw combined shot counts of 22, 24 and 32, while Sunderland’s matches registered 24, 25 and 24 shots. That fits neatly with this shots prediction, and aligns with the xG data: Sunderland tend to create more promising chances, while Wolves concede plenty, but neither side is consistently clinical.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wolves wins by X goals. Negative = Sunderland wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wolves vs Sunderland with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wolves vs Sunderland
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is almost dead level, with an expected spread of +0.06 in favour of Wolves – essentially calling a very narrow home edge. Wolves’ recent goal differences (-1, -3, -4) are grim, while Sunderland’s (-5, -1, +1) show volatility but at least some attacking threat. The expected spread matches the win probabilities: Wolves are more likely to edge it, but their fragile defence and Sunderland’s leaky back line make any margin of victory look slim.

Final Prediction

Wolves’ home advantage and slight statistical edge tip the scales in their favour, even though Sunderland are much better placed in the table. The key factor to watch is whether Wolves can finally turn territory and urgency into goals against a Sunderland defence that has conceded nine in its last two defeats.

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