Premier League 2025-2026: Wolves vs Tottenham Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wolves

Home Team
37%
VS

Tottenham

Away Team
39%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
2 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

Wolves L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 0)

Tottenham D L L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolves

xG (avg) 1.11
xGA (avg) 2.17
Clean Sheets 1

Tottenham

xG (avg) 1.26
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tottenham are very slight favourites here, with a 39.0% chance of an away win against Wolves’ 37.0%, and an expected goal spread of -0.11 edging it towards Spurs. The draw sits at 24.0%, so this is a genuinely tight relegation scrap between 18th‑placed Tottenham on 31 points and bottom‑club Wolves on 17. The model leans towards an away victory with an over 2.5 goals prediction, rated at 52.0%.

Match Analysis

Both sides come into this looking fragile. Wolves have taken just one point from their last three games, drawing 2-2 at Brentford before being thrashed 4-0 at West Ham and then beaten 3-0 at Leeds. They’ve at least found the net in one of those, and their last five matches show they score 1.4 goals per game but concede 1.6, backed up by an attacking average xG of 1.106 and a worrying defensive xG against of 2.168. That paints the picture of a team routinely allowing big chances and relying on their goalkeeper or poor finishing from opponents. Tottenham’s form is just as concerning, if not more so in front of goal. A 2-2 home draw with Brighton was preceded by a toothless 1-0 defeat at Sunderland and a 3-0 home loss to Nottingham Forest. Over the last five, Spurs are averaging only 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, despite posting 1.262 xG for and 1.824 xG against. They’re creating a bit more than they’re finishing, but they’re not tight enough at the back to ride out their attacking wastefulness and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0%, reflecting the defensive frailties on both sides. Two of Wolves’ last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Brentford, 0-4 vs West Ham), with only the 0-3 at Leeds just sneaking under. For Spurs, two of their last three also cleared the line (2-2 vs Brighton, 0-3 vs Forest), and with both teams conceding 1.6 goals per game and allowing xG against above 1.8 and 2.1 respectively, the balance of data supports goals rather than a cagey under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 9.78, pointing to a moderate corners prediction rather than a barrage from the wide areas. Wolves’ last three away games produced 11, 7, and 6 corners respectively, while Tottenham’s recent fixtures saw 12, 8, and a hefty 16 against Forest. Both sides have shown they can rack up corners when chasing games, and with Spurs generally the more front‑foot team, the predicted corners figure fits an open contest without being end‑to‑end for 90 minutes.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s expected shots total is 24.77, suggesting a reasonably active attacking game without becoming a shot-fest. Wolves’ last three have seen them take 13, 14 and 7 shots while facing 10, 18 and 17, whereas Spurs have fired 13, 11 and 14 efforts, conceding 10, 13 and 8. That volume, combined with xG figures of 1.106 and 1.262 in attack, makes the shots prediction of around 25 attempts consistent with two sides who are willing to pull the trigger but lack ruthless finishing.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wolves wins by X goals. Negative = Tottenham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wolves vs Tottenham with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wolves vs Tottenham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -0.11, a tiny expected spread in favour of Tottenham that mirrors their 39.0% win probability versus Wolves’ 37.0%. Wolves’ recent goal differences of -3, -4 and 0 highlight just how often they’re on the wrong side of a margin, while Spurs have posted -3, -1 and 0 in their last three. Neither side is dominant, but Tottenham’s slightly better attacking xG and higher league position tilt the expected spread just their way.

Final Prediction

Tottenham have the narrow edge because they create slightly more and concede slightly less in quality of chances than Wolves, even if recent results don’t fully reflect that. Wolves’ porous defence, underscored by 2.168 xG conceded per game over the last five, could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be which misfiring attack – Spurs’ or Wolves’ – finally converts pressure into goals in what should be a tense, open relegation battle.

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