Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Atalanta

Home Team
60%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: +0.7

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Atalanta W D L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)

Bologna W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.65
xGA (avg) 0.86
Clean Sheets 1

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are favored to take all three points here, with a 60.0% chance of a home win against a Bologna side given just a 20.0% probability, and a 20.0% chance of a draw. Seventh-placed Atalanta (58 points) are pushing hard on the European spots, while eighth-placed Bologna (52 points) are trying to keep their own hopes alive. The model leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0% and both teams expected to score (BTTS probability 57.0%.

Match Analysis

Atalanta come into this on a mixed run: a statement 3-2 away win at Milan, a frustrating 0-0 at home against Genoa where they dominated (21-7 shots), and a 3-2 defeat at Cagliari. The trend is clear: they’re creating plenty, but game control hasn’t always turned into clean results. Over the last five, they average only 1.0 goal scored but 1.65 expected goals per game, suggesting a side that is getting into good positions but not finishing at the rate they should. Defensively, they’ve been relatively solid with 0.8 goals conceded and 0.864 xG against on average, which underlines a structure that usually keeps chances against to a minimum. Bologna’s last three tell a similar story of narrow margins. They impressed with a 3-2 win away at second-placed Napoli, followed that with a 0-0 home draw against Cagliari, then fell 2-0 at home to Roma despite matching them in corners and shots. Offensively they’re slightly more productive on the scoreboard than Atalanta recently (1.4 goals per game) but their xG of 1.032 shows they rely more on taking chances than sustained pressure. At the back, conceding 1.0 per game from 1.076 xG against paints the picture of a mid-table defence: generally competitive but vulnerable when pressed by higher-quality attacks like Atalanta’s.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it with a 51.0% probability, supported by the recent scoring patterns. Two of Atalanta’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Milan, 2-3 vs Cagliari), with only the 0-0 vs Genoa going under. Bologna have seen one game over 2.5 (3-2 at Napoli) and two under 2.5 (0-0 vs Cagliari, 0-2 vs Roma). With Atalanta’s higher attacking xG (1.65 for, 0.864 against) and Bologna’s more clinical finishing (1.4 scored from 1.032 xG), the balance tips slightly towards another game with at least three goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.74 total corners, in line with recent numbers for both sides. Atalanta’s last three produced 4, 8 and 10 corners (totals), while Bologna’s delivered 8, 9 and 14, reflecting teams that can rack up set-piece opportunities when they attack with width. With both looking to push forward from midfield and using the flanks, the predicted corners figure around the 9–10 mark fits their current playing patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.32, which aligns neatly with how these teams have been playing. Atalanta’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 29 (vs Milan), 28 (vs Genoa) and 21 (vs Cagliari), suggesting they’re regularly involved in chance-heavy games. Bologna’s matches have featured 24 (vs Napoli), 21 (vs Cagliari) and 17 (vs Roma). This shots prediction dovetails with the xG data: Atalanta’s higher attacking xG indicates more frequent shooting, while Bologna’s more modest xG still points to a steady stream of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Atalanta wins by X goals. Negative = Bologna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Atalanta vs Bologna with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Atalanta vs Bologna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +0.65 in Atalanta’s favour, meaning the home side are expected to win by roughly two-thirds of a goal on average. Across their last three, Atalanta are exactly even on aggregate (3-2, 0-0, 2-3), while Bologna are also level (3-2, 0-0, 0-2), underlining that this is not a mismatch but a marginal edge for the hosts. The expected spread reflects Atalanta’s stronger xG profile and tighter defence, married to a 60.0% win probability, suggesting they’re slightly more likely to convert their pressure into a one-goal victory.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s edge comes from superior underlying numbers: they create more, concede fewer quality chances, and now face Bologna at home with European places still within reach. Bologna’s resilience and recent 3-2 win in Naples show they can punch up, but the weight of xG, home advantage and the +0.65 expected spread all tilt towards an Atalanta win. Watch how often Atalanta can pin Bologna back and generate shots and corners from wide areas; that territorial dominance could decide the game.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel