Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Juventus Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Atalanta

Home Team
38%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
38%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Atalanta W W D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)

Juventus W D W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

xG (avg) 2.57
xGA (avg) 1.09
Clean Sheets 2

Juventus

xG (avg) 2.15
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta get the nod as slight favourites at home, with a 38.0% probability of victory – the same as Juventus – but the model edges towards a home win in Bergamo. With Juventus 5th on 57 points and Atalanta 7th on 53 in a tightly-packed race for the Champions League spots, this feels like a genuine six‑pointer. The game leans towards attacking football: the over 2.5 prediction comes in at 57.0%, with both sides expected to find the net (62.0% probability of both scoring).

Match Analysis

Atalanta come into this on a strong run: wins over Lecce (3-0) and Verona (1-0) either side of a hard-fought 1-1 draw away to leaders Inter show both cutting edge and resilience. They’ve conceded just one goal in those last three games, and the advanced numbers back that up – 0.8 goals conceded on average in the last five, from only 1.094 expected goals against. Going forward they look sharp: 2.2 goals scored per match across their last five, with an even healthier 2.568 xG created, suggesting the attack is consistently generating quality chances. Juventus also arrive in decent shape, unbeaten in three with wins against Genoa (2-0) and Udinese (1-0) plus a 1-1 draw with Sassuolo. They’ve tightened up at the back lately, keeping three clean sheets in their last five, although across that span they still concede 1.6 goals per game on average from 1.266 xG against – a hint of some volatility in defensive performances. In attack, however, they look lively: 2.0 goals and 2.146 xG per match in the last five underline that this is a Juve side capable of sustaining pressure rather than nicking games with isolated moments. With both teams in the top seven, similar recent scoring profiles, and comparable win probabilities, this has all the ingredients of a balanced but open contest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 57.0%, and the data supports an open game. Only one of Atalanta’s last three league matches has gone over 2.5 goals (the 3-0 at Lecce), but their five‑game averages of 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, backed by 2.568 xG for, suggest they’re playing with attacking intent. Juventus have also seen one of their last three go over – that 2-0 against Genoa fell just short – but with 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match over the last five, plus 2.146 xG created, their profile points towards games with chances at both ends. That combination, plus the 62.0% “goal” (both teams to score) probability, reinforces the tilt towards over 2.5 rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches
Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly busy game from wide areas, with 9.6 total corners expected. Atalanta’s last three have produced 7, 6 and 5 total corners respectively, reflecting a side that doesn’t always rack up huge numbers but does push forward in spells. Juventus, by contrast, have been more corner-heavy: 10, 13 and 8 total corners in their last three show how their territorial pressure – 18 shots vs Sassuolo, 22 at Udinese – translates into set-piece opportunities. With two proactive teams and Juve often forcing opponents deep, the predicted corners figure around double digits looks well aligned with their recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.05, consistent with two teams that regularly trade blows in the final third. Atalanta’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 27 (vs Lecce), 23 (vs Verona) and 24 (vs Inter), which fits neatly around that projection. Juventus have been particularly shot-happy: 28 attempts in total against Genoa, 25 vs Sassuolo and 32 vs Udinese underline why the shots prediction sits in the mid‑20s – their recent xG tallies (2.146 per game) are built on volume as well as chance quality.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s slight edge comes from their recent defensive solidity paired with consistently strong chance creation at home, nudging the prediction towards a narrow win despite identical 38.0% win probabilities. Juventus’ attacking volume means they are more than capable of tilting the balance, but their higher goals-against average leaves questions at the back. The key factor to watch will be how Juve’s sustained pressure matches up against Atalanta’s compact, efficient defending – whoever controls that duel is likely to decide the race for crucial Champions League points.

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