Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Napoli Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Atalanta

Home Team
62%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Shots: 26.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Atalanta W W D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 1)

Napoli D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.92
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.27
# Clean Sheets: 3

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.04
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are favoured to win at home with a 62.0% probability, against just 19.0% for a Napoli victory and a 20.0% chance of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 goals outcome (54.0% probability). In the table, Napoli sit 3rd on 50 points, while Atalanta are 7th on 42, but current form and venue tilt this clash towards the Bergamo side.

Match Analysis

Atalanta come into this with strong recent results: two wins and a draw in their last three, including a 2-0 away success at Lazio and a 2-1 home win over Cremonese. Even in the 0-0 draw at Como, they showed resilience under pressure, conceding 28 shots but holding firm. Over their last five games they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, with three clean sheets, underlining a defensive solidity that hasn’t always been their trademark. Napoli’s recent form is also positive, with two wins and a draw in their last three: a 3-2 away win at Genoa, a 2-1 home win over Fiorentina, and a 2-2 draw against Roma. They’ve matched Atalanta with 1.8 goals scored on average over the last five games, but concede more at 1.4 per match. Their expected goals numbers (1.796 xG for vs 1.044 xG against) suggest a steady attack and reasonably protected defence, but not quite at the same dominance levels that Atalanta’s 2.92 xG for and 1.274 xG against indicate, especially going forward.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 54.0%, and the data leans that way. Two of Atalanta’s last three games fell under 2.5 goals (2-0, 2-1, 0-0), while all three of Napoli’s recent matches went over 2.5 (2-2, 3-2, 2-1). With both sides averaging 1.8 goals scored per game and Atalanta generating a hefty 2.92 expected goals recently, this feels more like an over 2.5 than an under 2.5 scenario.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.29, aligning with a lively attacking contest. Atalanta’s recent matches saw them take 12, 29 and 6 shots, while facing 18, 12 and 28, indicating high-variance but often shot-heavy encounters. Napoli have registered 11, 14 and 19 attempts in their last three, with opponents also getting chances, which supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s range and fits the strong xG numbers on both sides.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s edge comes from their recent defensive strength combined with very high attacking xG, plus home advantage, which collectively justify them being clear favourites despite Napoli’s higher league position. The key factor to watch will be how Napoli’s attack copes with Atalanta’s compact but aggressive set‑up; if Atalanta impose their xG-driven pressure early, the hosts are well placed to turn that into three points.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel