Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Udinese Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Atalanta

Home Team
90%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Atalanta L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)

Udinese W L L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.16
# Clean Sheets: 2

Udinese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.65
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are strong favourites here, with a 90.0% probability of taking all three points against Udinese, who are given just a 4.0% chance, with the draw at 6.0%. The over 2.5 prediction is also tilted towards goals, with a 57.0% probability of at least three being scored. In the table, Atalanta sit 7th on 45 points, pushing for Europe, while Udinese are 10th on 35 points, safely mid-table but well off the top-seven pace.

Match Analysis

Atalanta come into this with two wins from their last three league outings: a 2-1 home victory over Napoli and a 2-0 away success at Lazio, only interrupted by a narrow 2-1 defeat at Sassuolo. Across those matches they’ve looked assertive, racking up 26 shots at Sassuolo and controlling key moments against stronger opposition. Their recent five-game averages back that up: 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per match, with a hefty 2.878 expected goals created and 1.16 xG allowed, plus two clean sheets. That is the profile of a side in clear upward form at both ends of the pitch. Udinese’s last three show a more mixed picture: an excellent 3-0 home win over Fiorentina, sandwiched between 1-2 and 0-1 defeats to Sassuolo and Bologna. They have been competitive in all three, keeping shot counts level or close (10-10 vs Fiorentina, 10-11 at Bologna, 8-10 vs Sassuolo), but without the same cutting edge or defensive reliability. Over their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with 1.188 xG for and 1.652 xG against, plus two clean sheets. That suggests a balanced but vulnerable side – one that tends to give up better chances than it creates, which is dangerous away to an attacking Atalanta.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% leans towards another open game in Bergamo. Two of Atalanta’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Napoli, 2-1 at Sassuolo), with only the 2-0 win at Lazio falling under. Udinese show the same pattern: two of their last three have gone over 2.5 (3-0 vs Fiorentina, 1-2 vs Sassuolo), with the 0-1 loss at Bologna under. With Atalanta averaging 2.2 scored and 0.4 conceded and generating 2.878 xG per game, while Udinese sit at 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded with 1.652 xG against, the balance of attacking threat points towards goals rather than an under 2.5 stalemate.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches
Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a reasonably busy afternoon from the flags, with an expected total of 9.88 corners. Atalanta’s last three have produced 9 (9-3 at Sassuolo), 7 (6-1 vs Napoli) and 9 (4-5 at Lazio), underlining how their front-foot approach consistently generates set-piece situations. Udinese’s recent games have been similarly active: 7 corners at Bologna (7-4), 9 vs Sassuolo (7-6) and 7 vs Fiorentina (5-2). Both sides tend to attack down the flanks and shoot often, so the predicted corners figure fits two teams whose styles naturally drive the ball into wide areas and into the box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 25.92 expected shots in the match, suggesting a lively contest in and around both penalty areas. Atalanta’s last three have featured 26, 10 and 12 attempts for them, while allowing 7, 10 and 18 respectively – regularly pushing totals into the mid-20s or beyond. Udinese’s recent games show 10 and 8 efforts at home, plus 10 away at Bologna, while consistently allowing between 10 and 11 shots. Those figures, combined with Atalanta’s high xG output and Udinese’s tendency to concede decent chances, make around 26 expected shots a logical projection.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s edge comes from their superior recent form, heavier goal threat, and much stronger underlying numbers in both attack and defence. Udinese have shown they can be dangerous in spells, but their xG profile and away record suggest they are likely to spend long periods under pressure. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Atalanta impose their tempo and win territory; if they pin Udinese back early, the home win and over 2.5 script is likely to play out as predicted.

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