Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Verona Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Atalanta

Home Team
74%
VS

Verona

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 26.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Atalanta D D L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)

Verona L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.13
# Clean Sheets: 1

Verona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are clear favourites at home, with a 74.0% probability of taking all three points against a Verona side given just a 12.0% chance of an upset and a 14.0% chance of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction, with 57.0% likelihood of at least three goals. In the table, Atalanta are 7th on 47 points and pushing for Europe, while Verona sit 20th on 18 points and are fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Atalanta come in on a three‑game winless run (two draws and a defeat), but the performances have been far stronger than the raw results. They drew 1-1 away at leaders Inter, then 2-2 at home to Udinese, and were unfortunate to lose 2-1 at Sassuolo despite dominating the shot and corner counts in both of their last two matches. Over their last five games they have averaged 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by an impressive 2.73 expected goals for and 1.13 against, underlining a side that is consistently creating far more than it allows. Verona’s recent form is fragile: two home defeats (0-2 to Genoa and 1-2 to Napoli) sandwiched around a 2-1 away win at Bologna. They have scored just 0.6 goals per game over their last five, while conceding 2.0, and their attacking output is modest at 0.874 expected goals on average. Defensively they have been slightly better in underlying numbers (1.418 xG conceded) than the scoreboard suggests, but with no clean sheets in those five matches, they struggle to keep opponents quiet, a dangerous weakness against an Atalanta attack in rhythm.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 57.0%, and the recent goal patterns support it. Two of Atalanta’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Udinese, 1-2 vs Sassuolo), while one stayed under (1-1 at Inter). Verona have had tighter scorelines—two of their last three also finished under 2.5 (0-2 vs Genoa, 1-2 vs Napoli and 2-1 vs Bologna both exactly on 3 goals), but their average of 2.0 goals conceded and Atalanta’s 2.4 scored, combined with Atalanta’s 2.73 xG per game, lean clearly towards another open contest rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches
Verona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.92 total corners, just under double figures. Atalanta’s last three games have featured big corner hauls in their favour: 11-3 vs Udinese and 9-3 vs Sassuolo after a quieter 3-2 at Inter, reflecting a front‑foot style that piles on pressure and naturally generates more set pieces. Verona have been more modest in this department (4-2 vs Genoa, 3-5 at Bologna, 2-5 vs Napoli), suggesting Atalanta are likely to drive the corner count, making the predicted corners total in the 9–10 range realistic for two sides with one clear aggressor.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Verona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.44, which fits neatly with what both teams have produced of late. Atalanta racked up 22 shots against Udinese and 26 at Sassuolo, even if they were limited to 8 attempts at Inter, while consistently out‑shooting their opponents. Verona’s games have been more balanced but still reasonably active, with 8 shots versus Genoa, 15 at Bologna and 8 against Napoli, while regularly allowing opponents into double figures. Given Atalanta’s strong xG profile and Verona’s tendency to concede efforts on goal, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s feels well aligned with the attacking dynamics here.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s superior league position, richer attacking numbers and dominance in recent chance creation give them a clear edge over a Verona side marooned at the bottom and struggling in both boxes. The key factor to watch will be Atalanta’s ability to convert their expected goals into a decisive early lead; if they do, Verona’s defence could be in for a long evening in Bergamo.

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