Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Inter Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bologna

Home Team
21%
VS

Inter

Away Team
59%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: -0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Bologna W W D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)

Inter D W W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.19
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 2

Inter

xG (avg) 1.44
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Inter travel to Bologna as clear favourites, with a 59.0% chance of victory against just 21.0% for the hosts and 20.0% for the draw. The model leans towards Simone Inzaghi’s side extending their lead at the top of Serie A, where Inter sit 1st on 86 points, while Bologna are 8th with 55 points. The outlook is for a tight game in front of goal, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% implied by the 48.0% probability of over 2.5.

Match Analysis

Bologna arrive in good spirits after back-to-back away wins at Atalanta (1-0) and Napoli (3-2), followed by a solid 0-0 at home against Cagliari. Those three results show both sides of Motta’s team: disciplined and compact in Bergamo and at home, but able to open up in Naples where the game became more stretched. Despite this uptick in results, their underlying numbers over the last five matches are modest: only 0.6 goals scored on average and 1.2 conceded, with 1.194 xG for and 1.448 xG against, plus 2 clean sheets that underline their capacity to shut games down. Inter’s recent form remains strong and controlled. A 3-0 win away at Lazio and a 2-0 home victory over Parma highlight their ability to manage games once in front, with only the 1-1 draw against Verona at San Siro breaking up a winning run. Across the last five, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, supported by 1.436 xG for and 1.776 xG against, along with 3 clean sheets – suggesting they can bend without breaking even when the opposition create. That balance in both boxes is a major reason why they are leading the league and heavily favoured here.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 prediction, with over 2.5 goals given only a 48.0% chance. Bologna’s last three games have produced one high-scoring match (3-2 at Napoli) and two low-scoring ones (1-0 and 0-0), so 2 out of 3 have gone under 2.5. Inter, meanwhile, had two matches under (2-0 vs Parma, 1-1 vs Verona) and one over (3-0 at Lazio), and their five-game averages of 0.6 scored/1.2 conceded for Bologna and 2.0/1.4 for Inter, plus relatively restrained xG figures on both sides, point to a controlled encounter rather than a shoot-out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches
Inter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.43, roughly in line with what both teams have produced recently. Bologna’s last three have seen 7, 8 and 9 total corners (5-2, 1-7, 7-2), suggesting a team that can both force and concede corners depending on game state. Inter’s matches have been more volatile in this regard – 12 vs Verona (10-2), 6 at Lazio (1-5) and 11 vs Parma (8-3) – so the predicted corners around the 9–10 mark fits two sides who like to build attacks, with Inter’s territorial pressure and Bologna’s wide play both feeding into that number.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.12 reflects a match where both sides create but don’t necessarily go wild in attack. Bologna’s last three outings saw 10, 10 and 13 attempts, while allowing 10, 14 and 8, which is consistent with a mid-table side that trades chances but rarely in extreme volumes. Inter’s 17, 14 and 12 shots in their last three, coupled with their recent xG of 1.436 per game, support a shots prediction in the low-to-mid 20s overall, with the league leaders likely to edge the shot count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bologna wins by X goals. Negative = Inter wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bologna vs Inter with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bologna vs Inter
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.63 in favour of Inter, meaning the away side are expected to win by a little over half a goal on average. Recent scorelines back that up: Bologna are +2 on goal difference over their last three (4 scored, 2 conceded), while Inter are +4 (6 scored, 2 conceded) with two comfortable wins. Combining Inter’s 59.0% win probability, their superior scoring rate, and Bologna’s lower attacking output and higher xG conceded, the expected spread tilts convincingly towards the league leaders.

Final Prediction

Inter’s sharper attack, deeper squad and greater defensive reliability give them the edge over a competitive but less clinical Bologna. If the game follows the numbers, it should be tight for long stretches, decided by Inter’s ability to convert their periods of pressure into goals. A key factor to watch will be whether Bologna’s recently improved resilience can keep Inter’s front line quiet long enough to turn this into the kind of low-scoring battle they enjoy.

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