Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Lazio Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Bologna

Home Team
55%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Bologna W L W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)

Lazio W W L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.55
# Clean Sheets: 3

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.17
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are favoured to edge this one at home, with a 55.0% probability of victory compared to Lazio’s 23.0%, making the hosts slight but clear favourites in this battle between 8th (Bologna, 42 points) and 9th (Lazio, 40 points) in Serie A. The model leans towards a cagey encounter, with an *under 2.5* goals prediction at 56.0% likelihood and even suggests a 47.0% probability that at least one team fails to score.

Match Analysis

Bologna come into the match with two wins in their last three games, both 1-0 away successes at Sassuolo and Pisa, bookending a frustrating 2-1 home defeat to struggling Verona. Those results fit a clear pattern: tight margins, low scores, and a side that often controls territory and shots (16-9 at Sassuolo, 19-15 vs Verona) but doesn’t turn pressure into many goals. Their recent averages underline this: just 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game in the last five, despite generating 1.156 xG on average. Three clean sheets in that stretch show they can shut teams down when their defensive structure holds. Lazio, one place and two points behind Bologna, are also threading the needle in close games. They’ve beaten Milan 1-0 and Sassuolo 2-1 at home, but slipped to a 2-0 defeat away to Torino. Across the last five matches they’ve scored only 0.6 goals per game and conceded 0.8, with an attacking xG of 0.75 and xG against of 1.174. That hints at a side living on narrow margins, relying on defensive solidity more than sustained attacking waves. Both teams’ recent numbers point towards a tactical, cautious contest rather than an end‑to‑end shootout.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
The over/under 2.5 prediction points firmly to *under 2.5 goals* with a 56.0% probability. Two of Bologna’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (1-0, 1-2, 1-0), while Lazio have seen two under 2.5 as well (1-0, 2-1, 0-2). With both sides averaging only 0.6 goals scored recently and their xG figures (Bologna 1.156, Lazio 0.75) suggesting modest attacking output, this looks set to be another low‑scoring encounter.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches
Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderately busy match in wide areas, with 9.18 expected total corners. Bologna’s last three have produced 9, 8 and 11 corners, while Lazio’s games have seen 10, 7 and 15. Bologna’s tendency to rack up shots and territorial pressure, and Lazio’s mix of deep defending and counters, support a forecast in the 8–11 range for predicted corners, in line with the model’s expectation.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 25.35 expected shots in total, again pointing to an active match even if goals are scarce. Bologna’s last three have featured 25, 34 and 14 total shots, while Lazio’s produced 24, 20 and 25, all consistent with that 25-shot band. Given Bologna’s higher recent xG and Lazio’s ability to create in bursts despite low scoring, the expected shots tally lends further weight to a game with chances but not necessarily a flurry of goals.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s edge comes from home advantage, stronger shot numbers, and slightly better underlying attacking metrics, all of which justify them being favoured at 55.0% to take the points. The key factor to watch will be which side can convert limited chances more ruthlessly in what the data strongly suggests will be a tight, low‑scoring contest.

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