Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Lecce Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Bologna

Home Team
72%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Bologna W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)

Lecce L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.65
Clean Sheets 2

Lecce

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are clear favourites at the Dall’Ara, with a 72.0% chance of taking all three points against a Lecce side given just a 13.0% probability of an upset, and a 15.0% chance of a draw. Sitting 8th on 45 points, Bologna are pushing for Europe, while 18th-placed Lecce are locked in a relegation fight on 27 points. The model leans towards a tight home win combined with an under 2.5 goals prediction, and even suggests a “no goal” scenario with only a 48.0% chance that both sides score.

Match Analysis

Bologna come into this fixture with two wins from their last three matches: 2-1 away at Cremonese and 1-0 at Sassuolo, either side of a 0-2 home defeat to Lazio. Those results underline a team that can control games, create chances (14, 15 and 16 shots in those fixtures) but still struggles for cutting edge, reflected in just three goals across those three outings. Defensively, they’ve tightened up enough to grind out results, recording a clean sheet at Sassuolo and conceding only once at Cremonese. Lecce, by contrast, arrive on a run of three straight defeats: 0-3 at home to Atalanta, 0-1 away at Roma and 1-2 away at Napoli. They have at least stayed competitive against strong opposition, especially in Naples where shots were level at 12-12, but the pattern is clear: they’re conceding regularly and failing to keep games under control. Their attacking output over the last five games averages 0.8 goals from 0.938 xG, while conceding 1.4 goals from 1.832 xG, with no clean sheets – a worrying sign against a side of Bologna’s calibre. From an advanced metrics standpoint, Bologna’s attack looks better than the raw goals suggest. They’re producing 1.154 xG per game over the last five yet scoring only 0.4, hinting at poor finishing rather than lack of chances. Defensively, they’re allowing 1.65 xG and 1.6 goals on average, so they are not watertight but solid enough, particularly at home against a low-scoring opponent. Lecce’s higher defensive xG conceded and their failure to shut anyone out recently give Bologna a clear statistical edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs under 2.5 with a 53.0% probability against 47.0% for over 2.5, and the recent numbers support that under 2.5 call. Two of Bologna’s last three games have finished under 2.5 goals (0-2 vs Lazio, 1-0 vs Sassuolo), with only the 2-1 at Cremonese edging over. For Lecce, two of their last three have also gone under – 0-1 at Roma and 1-2 at Napoli – with only the 0-3 loss to Atalanta reaching three goals. Given Bologna’s 0.4 goals scored vs 1.6 conceded, Lecce’s 0.8 vs 1.4, and both sides’ modest xG figures, a cagey contest with limited scoring looks more likely than an over 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches
Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.6 total corners, which fits with the recent patterns of both teams. Bologna’s last three matches produced 6, 3 and 11 corners respectively, showing they can be involved in higher counts when they spend time in the opposition half, as at Sassuolo (4-7). Lecce’s last three have seen 7, 12 and 14 corners, numbers boosted by them often chasing games and allowing opponents to rack up set-piece situations. With both sides expected to attack in spells but without relentless pressure, a total close to the predicted corners mark just under double figures seems realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.23, which matches closely with what these sides have been producing. Bologna’s last three outings have generated 14, 15 and 16 attempts, suggesting they should again post double figures at home, especially against a defence conceding 1.832 xG on average. Lecce have managed 11, 8 and 12 shots in their last three, respectable numbers even in defeat, so it’s reasonable that the shots prediction sits in the mid‑20s. That shot volume, combined with relatively low xG per game for both teams, underpins the view of a match with plenty of efforts but not necessarily many clear-cut chances.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s higher league position, better recent results and stronger underlying numbers give them a clear advantage, justifying the 72.0% win probability. Lecce’s inability to keep clean sheets and their fragile defensive xG profile tilt the balance further towards the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Bologna can finally align their chance creation with more clinical finishing, or whether Lecce can drag the contest into the kind of low-tempo, low-scoring battle their survival hopes may depend on.

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