Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Milan Prediction - 3 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Bologna

Home Team
27%
VS

Milan

Away Team
54%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 23 18 1 4 52 19 33 55
2 Milan 22 13 8 1 35 17 18 47
3 Napoli 23 14 4 5 33 21 12 46
4 Juventus 23 13 6 4 39 18 21 45
5 Roma 23 14 1 8 27 14 13 43
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 23 9 9 5 30 20 10 36
8 Lazio 23 8 8 7 24 21 3 32
9 Udinese 23 9 5 9 26 34 -8 32
10 Bologna 22 8 6 8 32 27 5 30
11 Sassuolo 23 8 5 10 27 29 -2 29
12 Cagliari 23 7 7 9 28 31 -3 28
13 Torino 23 7 5 11 22 40 -18 26
14 Genoa 23 5 8 10 27 34 -7 23
15 Cremonese 23 5 8 10 20 31 -11 23
16 Parma 23 5 8 10 15 30 -15 23
17 Lecce 23 4 6 13 13 30 -17 18
18 Fiorentina 23 3 8 12 25 36 -11 17
19 Pisa 23 1 11 11 19 40 -21 14
20 Verona 23 2 8 13 18 41 -23 14

Recent Trends

Bologna L L W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)

Milan D W W D D

  • Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 0

Milan

xG (avg) 1.40
xGA (avg) 1.54
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are favored to take all three points in Bologna, with a 54.0% probability of an away win against just 27.0% for the hosts and 20.0% for a draw. The model also leans towards a tight encounter, predicting under 2.5 total goals (46.0% probability of over, so a slight edge to the under) but still expecting both teams to score (51.0% probability of “goal”). Milan come into this clash sitting 2nd on 47 points, while Bologna are 10th with 30 points.

Match Analysis

Bologna’s recent form has been volatile: a 3–2 away win at Verona was sandwiched between defeats to Genoa (3–2 away) and Fiorentina (2–1 at home). The numbers behind those games suggest their attacking threat is better than their finishing shows, with an average of 1.298 expected goals over the last five matches but only 0.6 goals actually scored. Defensively, conceding 1.8 goals per game on average and failing to keep a single clean sheet in that span underlines why they are vulnerable against stronger attacks. Milan, by contrast, look more balanced and consistent. They are unbeaten in their last three, drawing 1–1 at Roma and beating Lecce 1–0 at home and Como 3–1 away, with 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average over their last five outings. Their expected goals figures (1.402 for, 1.542 against) show games that can be fairly even, but Milan’s ability to convert chances and manage tight scorelines fits with the prediction of a narrow away win in a low-scoring contest.

Final Prediction

Milan’s superior league position, recent results, and more efficient attack give them a clear edge going into this match. Bologna’s defensive fragility versus Milan’s steady scoring form tilts the balance towards the Rossoneri. A key factor to watch will be whether Bologna can turn decent underlying attacking numbers into clinical finishing against a Milan side that has recently shown it can close out close games.

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