Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Roma Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bologna

Home Team
35%
VS

Roma

Away Team
41%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.0

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Bologna L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)

Roma D W L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.58
xGA (avg) 1.09
Clean Sheets 2

Roma

xG (avg) 0.95
xGA (avg) 1.69
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are slight favourites here, with a 41.0% chance of taking all three points away to Bologna, who have a 35.0% win probability, while the draw sits at 24.0%. With Roma 6th on 58 points and Bologna 8th on 48, this is a classic late-season clash between a European contender and an ambitious outsider. The model leans towards a Roma win in a tight game, combined with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% implied likelihood.

Match Analysis

Bologna come in off a solid mini-run: two wins from their last three, beating Lecce 2-0 at home and Cremonese 2-1 away, either side of a 2-0 defeat at Juventus. Those results fit their profile from the last five games: not especially prolific (0.8 goals scored on average) but generally competitive and organised, conceding just 1.0 per match. Interestingly, their attacking underlying numbers are stronger than the raw goals – 1.582 expected goals per game – suggesting they are creating more than they’re actually finishing. Roma’s recent form has been more volatile: a heavy 5-2 loss at Inter, a routine 3-0 win over bottom side Pisa, and a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Atalanta. Over the last five, they average 1.2 goals scored but a worrying 2.4 conceded, while their expected goals against stands at 1.688, considerably higher than Bologna’s defensive figure. Their own xG in attack is modest at 0.948, pointing to an attack that has relied more on taking chances than sustained pressure.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 52.0% edge over the 48.0% probability of over 2.5 goals. Two of Bologna’s last three matches landed under 2.5 (2-0 vs Juventus, 2-0 vs Lecce), with only the 2-1 at Cremonese going over. Roma have gone the other way, with two of their last three over 2.5 (3-0 vs Pisa, 5-2 at Inter) and just the 1-1 with Atalanta under. Bologna’s low scoring average (0.8 for, 1.0 against) against Roma’s modest xG in attack (0.948) supports a cautious over 2.5 prediction leaning towards under 2.5 overall, especially if Bologna succeed in slowing the tempo.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches
Roma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 9.51, a figure that aligns with both sides’ recent numbers. Bologna’s last three have produced corner totals of 7, 14 and 6, while Roma’s have seen 13, 4 and 11 – often around or just above that predicted corners mark. With Bologna showing a willingness to build attacks (8 corners against Lecce) and Roma capable of forcing pressure spells (7 corners vs Inter, 7 vs Atalanta), the corners prediction suggests a game of measured but not constant attacking waves from both sides.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 24.07 total attempts, fitting well with what both teams have shown recently. Bologna’s last three matches featured them taking 7, 12 and 14 shots, while facing 14, 6 and 9. Roma, meanwhile, attempted 19, 8 and 9, and conceded 8, 9 and 17. Given Roma’s higher shots volume in the Atalanta and Inter games and Bologna’s steady creation aligning with their 1.582 xG, the expected shots figure points to a balanced contest where neither side should completely dominate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bologna wins by X goals. Negative = Roma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bologna vs Roma with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bologna vs Roma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected spread is essentially even at 0.01 in Bologna’s favour, despite Roma having the higher win probability. Recent goal differences underline how finely poised this is: Bologna are +1 over their last three (4 scored, 3 conceded), Roma are also +1 (6 scored, 6 conceded) but with far more volatility. This near-zero goal spread prediction reflects Roma’s slightly greater likelihood of winning, offset by Bologna’s stronger recent defensive metrics and home advantage, suggesting any victory is likely to be by a single goal at most.

Final Prediction

Roma have the statistical edge thanks to their higher win probability and stronger league position, but Bologna’s sturdy defence and better recent xG balance make this anything but straightforward. The key factor to watch will be whether Bologna’s attack can finally match its underlying numbers; if they turn chances into goals, Roma’s leaky defence could face another difficult evening.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel