Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Udinese Prediction - 23 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Bologna

Home Team
81%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
9%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Shots: 23.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Bologna W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)

Udinese L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.61
# Clean Sheets: 0

Udinese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.01
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are strong favourites at home, with an 81.0% probability of victory against Udinese, who are given just a 9.0% chance, and an 11.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring home win with an under 2.5 goals prediction (probability 54.0% vs 46.0% for over). In the table, Bologna are 8th on 33 points, only one point and three goals better off than 11th-placed Udinese, underlining how important this mid-table clash is.

Match Analysis

Bologna come into this fixture with mixed recent form: a big 2-1 away win at Torino was surrounded by home defeats to Parma (0-1) and Milan (0-3). Those three matches show attacking volume but blunt finishing: 14, 16 and 13 shots respectively for just two goals scored. Over their last five games they’ve averaged only 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, despite a more respectable 1.098 expected goals (xG) created per match, hinting at wastefulness in front of goal and some defensive fragility. Udinese’s last three outings tell a slightly different story. They edged Roma 1-0 at home but then slipped to back-to-back 2-1 defeats against Lecce and Sassuolo. They’ve been more productive in attack than Bologna recently, averaging 1.4 goals over the last five, backed by 1.24 xG, but their defence has been leaky, conceding 2.0 goals per game with 2.012 expected against. Just one clean sheet in that run underlines why they sit 11th with a negative goal difference of -10 (28 scored, 38 conceded).

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5 with a 54.0% probability, making “under 2.5” the main goals call here in the over 2.5 prediction market. Two of Bologna’s last three matches finished with exactly three goals (2-1 vs Torino, 0-3 vs Milan), while one stayed under (0-1 vs Parma), reflecting a mixed pattern. Udinese have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (both 2-1 defeats) and one under (1-0 vs Roma), but Bologna’s very low recent scoring average (0.4 goals) and both sides’ xG figures just above 1.0 suggest a cagey contest where a single goal or two could decide it.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 23.78, implying a game with a fair amount of goal attempts but not a constant barrage. Bologna have recently attempted 14, 16 and 13 shots, while allowing 7, 5 and 10, which fits an overall pattern of being the more proactive side, especially at home. Udinese’s numbers – 8, 6 and 8 shots taken, facing 10, 16 and 10 – support a shots prediction where Bologna’s attacking volume, combined with Udinese’s defensive openness and the xG profiles, drives the total towards the mid-20s.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s stronger league position, home advantage and higher win probability give them a clear edge, even if their recent finishing has been below par. Udinese’s tendency to concede chances and goals away from home could tilt the key moments towards the hosts. A critical factor to watch will be whether Bologna can finally align their shot volume and xG with clinical finishing to turn territorial dominance into a solid, low-scoring win.

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