Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Verona Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Bologna

Home Team
88%
VS

Verona

Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Shots: 23.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Bologna W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)

Verona L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.41
# Clean Sheets: 2

Verona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.55
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are clear favourites at home, with an 88.0% probability of victory against bottom‑placed Verona, who have just a 5.0% chance of an upset and sit 20th in Serie A on 15 points. Eighth-placed Bologna, on 39 points, are backed not only to win but to do so in a controlled manner, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0% implied probability. A low‑scoring match is further underlined by the “no both teams to score” angle, with only a 49.0% probability of seeing goals from both sides.

Match Analysis

Bologna arrive in strong form, riding a three‑match winning streak: 1-0 at Pisa, 1-0 at home to Udinese and 2-1 away to Torino. They’ve tightened up defensively, allowing just one goal across those fixtures, even if the margins have been narrow. The advanced numbers show a slightly better attacking side than the raw scorelines suggest, with 1.2 expected goals (xG) on average over the last five games versus only 0.4 actually scored, and 1.412 xG conceded against 1.6 goals shipped. That points to a team generally creating enough, but still built on structure rather than spectacle. Verona, by contrast, are sinking deeper into trouble. Three straight defeats – 1-2 at home to Napoli, then 0-3 at Sassuolo and 1-2 at Parma – have kept them stuck in the relegation zone, level on 15 points with 19th‑placed Pisa but burdened with a -28 goal difference. Their recent numbers are grim: 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded on average in the last five, with just 0.726 xG created per game. The defence is giving up 1.552 xG on average, so they are regularly second best in territory and chances, which is a worrying sign coming into a trip to a top‑half side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 prediction, with under 2.5 goals favoured over the 47.0% chance of seeing three or more. Two of Bologna’s last three matches have gone under – the 1-0 wins over Pisa and Udinese – with only the 2-1 at Torino edging over 2.5. All three of Verona’s recent fixtures ended 2-1, 0-3 and 1-2, so all three went over 2.5, but their modest averages of 0.6 goals scored and 0.726 xG underline a limited attacking threat; combined with Bologna’s cautious edge and 1.6 goals conceded from 1.412 xG against, a tighter home win looks more likely than a shootout.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Verona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 23.22 expected shots overall, this shots prediction sits in line with recent trends. Bologna have recorded 8, 11 and 14 shots in their last three, while allowing 6, 10 and 7 – a picture of a team typically edging the shot count rather than overwhelming opponents. Verona’s last three matches saw them take 8, 12 and just 4 shots, but concede 9, 8 and a huge 27, which ties neatly to their low xG for (0.726) and higher xG against (1.552): they spend long periods under pressure and are likely to inflate Bologna’s attempt tally.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s superior league position, recent three‑game winning run and stronger underlying metrics give them a clear edge over a Verona side stuck in a losing spiral and deep in relegation trouble. The key factor to watch will be how Verona cope with sustained pressure: if Bologna’s chance creation matches their 1.2 xG average, the home side should be able to turn control into a professional, low‑scoring win.

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