Serie A 2025-2026: Cagliari vs Atalanta Prediction - 27 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cagliari

Home Team
27%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
50%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: -0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Cagliari L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 3)

Atalanta D L W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

xG (avg) 0.89
xGA (avg) 1.12
Clean Sheets 1

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.98
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are favored to take all three points in Sardinia, with a 50.0% probability of an away win against Cagliari’s 27.0% chance at home, and a 23.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points towards a tight game with an under 2.5 goals prediction (45.0% chance of over, so a slight lean to the under), despite both sides usually playing front‑foot football. In the table, Atalanta sit 7th on 54 points, pushing for Europe, while Cagliari are 16th on 33 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Cagliari come into this one with mixed recent form: a 1-0 home win over fellow struggler Cremonese was sandwiched between a 3-0 defeat at Inter and a 2-1 loss away to Sassuolo. Across those three games, they’ve been competitive in shots (10 vs Inter, 17 vs Cremonese, 11 vs Sassuolo) but have struggled badly in front of goal, which matches their last‑five average of just 0.4 goals scored per game. Defensively, conceding only 1.0 goal per match on average over their last five – with one clean sheet – shows they’re more solid than their league position suggests. Atalanta, meanwhile, look the more complete outfit. A 3-0 win at Lecce, a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Juventus despite dominating shots (22-7), and a 1-1 draw away at Roma underline a side that regularly creates chances. Their last‑five numbers are strong: 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded on average, backed by an impressive 1.984 expected goals per game. Even if they occasionally leave the door open at the back (1.49 xG conceded on average), they come into this with more attacking punch and better overall balance than Cagliari.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 outcome here, and that fits the recent pattern. Two of Cagliari’s last three matches (3-0 vs Inter and 2-1 vs Sassuolo) went over 2.5 goals, but their own scoring rate is low and they average only 0.885 xG for and 1.116 xG against over the last five – numbers that point to tight margins. Atalanta have seen two of their last three go under 2.5 (1-0 vs Juventus, 1-1 vs Roma), and with 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average, an over 2.5 prediction would be tempting, but the data still nudges this towards a controlled, lower‑scoring away win.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for the corners prediction is 9.7, pointing towards a game with a normal to slightly high number of set‑piece situations. Cagliari’s recent corner counts (4 at Inter, 6 vs Cremonese, 2 at Sassuolo) suggest they don’t constantly pin teams back, especially away from home. Atalanta, however, have been corner machines lately – 13 against Juventus, 6 at Roma, 5 at Lecce – and their high-tempo, chance-creating style should drive the bulk of the predicted corners, even if Cagliari contribute less from wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match stand at 25.19, a healthy total that suits Atalanta’s attacking profile. Cagliari have produced 10, 17 and 11 shots in their last three games, but often without the quality to match. Atalanta’s 22 efforts against Juventus, 16 at Lecce and 8 at Roma show why the shots prediction is relatively high, and it aligns neatly with their strong xG figure of 1.984 per game – suggesting they should once again generate a solid volume of opportunities.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cagliari wins by X goals. Negative = Atalanta wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cagliari vs Atalanta with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cagliari vs Atalanta
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.39 in favor of Atalanta, meaning the expected spread slightly backs the visitors to win by around a single goal. Cagliari’s recent goal differences (0-3, 1-0, 1-2) underline how quickly games can slip away from them when they fall behind. Atalanta’s recent +2 vs Lecce, -1 vs Juventus and 0 vs Roma match both their superior attacking numbers and the 50.0% away‑win probability, reinforcing the idea of a narrow but deserved Bergamaschi victory.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s sharper attack, better recent defensive record and stronger underlying numbers give them the edge over a Cagliari side still fighting to stay clear of the bottom three. If Cagliari are to spring a surprise, it will likely depend on keeping the game slow and tight; otherwise, Atalanta’s chance creation – particularly from wide areas and set pieces – looks like the key factor to watch.

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