Serie A 2025-2026: Cagliari vs Como Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Cagliari

Home Team
6%
VS

Como

Away Team
87%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 22.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Cagliari D D L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 4 - 0)

Como W W D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.88
# Clean Sheets: 2

Como

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.10
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Como travel to Sardinia as overwhelming favourites: the model gives them an 87.0% chance of victory, with Cagliari rated at just 6.0% and the draw at 7.0. Fifth-placed Como (48 points) are pushing hard for a Champions League spot, while 13th-placed Cagliari (30 points) are still looking nervously over their shoulder at the relegation places. The outlook is for a tight contest in terms of goals, with an under 2.5 prediction despite Como’s strong attacking form.

Match Analysis

Cagliari come into this one on a three-game winless run: draws against Parma (1-1 away) and Lazio (0-0 at home) followed by a 2-0 home defeat to Lecce. Those results underline their current profile – organised, competitive, but lacking punch in the final third. Across the last five matches they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored but only 0.6 conceded, supported by modest xG numbers of 0.942 for and 0.882 against. Two clean sheets in that spell show they can keep things tight if they’re allowed to sit compact. Como, by contrast, are one of the form sides in the league. They beat Lecce 3-1 at home, then produced statement away performances by beating Juventus 2-0 and drawing 1-1 with Milan. Their last five games show a sharp edge: 2.4 goals scored on average and only 0.2 conceded, backed by a strong 1.958 xG for per match. Even if they do allow chances – 1.102 xG against on average – their balance between efficiency in attack and defensive solidity is the key reason they are fifth and pushing the top four.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Como
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards under 2.5 with a 47.0% chance of more than 2.5 goals, so the under 2.5 prediction edges it. Two of Cagliari’s last three games have finished under 2.5 goals (0-0 v Lazio, 0-2 v Lecce), with only the 1-1 at Parma also staying below the line, reflecting their average of 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, and sub-1.0 xG in attack. Como’s last three have produced one over 2.5 (3-1 v Lecce) and two under (2-0 v Juventus, 1-1 v Milan), and while their attack is lively, Cagliari’s conservative numbers suggest this could be more controlled than Como’s recent scorelines suggest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Como
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 22.93, suggesting a game with a decent but not extreme volume of efforts. Cagliari have taken 11 shots in each of their last three matches, while facing 18, 10 and 13 respectively – consistent but not explosive. Como’s recent outings show 12 shots versus Lecce, then 11 at Juventus and 10 at Milan, matching their strong xG and hinting at quality as much as quantity. This shots prediction fits a scenario where Como control territory and chance creation, with Cagliari looking for fewer but selective attempts.

Final Prediction

Como’s superior league position, recent results against top opposition and far stronger attacking metrics give them a clear edge in this matchup. Cagliari’s resilience and low-conceding profile could keep the scoreline tight, but they will have to solve a Como side that scores freely and rarely lets anything in. The key factor to watch will be whether Cagliari’s compact defence can disrupt Como’s rhythm early; if they cannot, the visitors’ quality in the final third should tell.

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