Serie A 2025-2026: Cagliari vs Cremonese Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Cagliari

Home Team
58%
VS

Cremonese

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 40%
Under 2.5: 60%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 23.7

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Cagliari L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)

Cremonese L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 1.14
Clean Sheets 0

Cremonese

xG (avg) 0.72
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Cagliari are favoured to edge this relegation six-pointer, with a 58.0% probability of a home win against Cremonese’s 21.0%, and the draw also at 21.0%. With Cagliari sitting 16th on 30 points and Cremonese 17th on 27, this is a direct fight to stay out of the bottom three, and the numbers point slightly towards the hosts. The model leans towards a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 40.0% and a low 49.0% chance that both sides find the net.

Match Analysis

Both teams arrive under pressure and not in sparkling form. Cagliari come off three straight defeats – 1-2 at Sassuolo, 0-1 at home to Napoli and 1-3 away at Pisa – a run that has dragged them deep into the survival battle. Yet those matches show a side still creating: 11 shots at Sassuolo, 14 at Pisa and even in the Napoli loss they forced seven attempts. The advanced data backs the impression of a team that is competitive but fragile: they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded across the last five games, with expected goals of 0.996 for and 1.136 against, but crucially no clean sheets in that stretch. Cremonese’s form is similarly patchy but with a slightly softer attacking edge. They lost 1-2 at home to Bologna, beat Parma 2-0 away, then were well beaten 1-4 by Fiorentina at home. The performances underline their inconsistency: just seven shots at Parma, nine against Bologna but 13 versus Fiorentina as they chased the game. Over the last five, they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG at 0.722 for and 1.828 against, plus only one clean sheet. That defensive vulnerability, especially compared to Cagliari’s slightly better underlying balance, is a key reason why the prediction leans towards a home win despite both sides’ struggles.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 as the likeliest outcome, with a 40.0% probability and a generally low-scoring profile for both teams. Two of Cagliari’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (1-2 vs Sassuolo, 1-3 vs Pisa), but the 0-1 defeat to Napoli is more in line with their recent averages of 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, and an xG of 0.996 for. Cremonese’s last three show a similar split – two over 2.5 (1-2 vs Bologna, 1-4 vs Fiorentina) and one under (2-0 vs Parma) – but their modest 0.8 goals scored, 1.6 conceded and just 0.722 xG for over five games support an under 2.5 prediction in what could become a tense, risk-averse relegation battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.4, pointing to a match with a moderate but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Cagliari’s last three games produced corner counts of 2-2, 2-7 and 5-1, suggesting they can rack up corners when they take the initiative, but also spend long spells defending against stronger opponents. Cremonese’s recent figures – 2-4, 1-3 and 4-6 – tell a similar story of teams that don’t camp in the opposition half for long periods. That balance fits a corners prediction around the 9–10 mark, with both sides likely to be cautious rather than relentlessly attacking from wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.73 total attempts, which matches what we have seen recently from both sides. Cagliari’s last three: 11-9 at Sassuolo, 7-17 against Napoli and 14-10 at Pisa – all comfortably into double figures combined. Cremonese’s: 9-14 vs Bologna, 7-8 at Parma and 13-13 vs Fiorentina, again backing an expected shots total in the low-to-mid 20s. Given Cagliari’s xG of 0.996 and Cremonese’s 0.722 over the last five, we should see a fair number of efforts but not necessarily a high conversion rate, aligning with a low-scoring game despite healthy expected shots numbers.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s slight edge in underlying numbers, home advantage and Cremonese’s more porous recent defence explain why the hosts are favoured to take three crucial points. With both teams averaging under a goal per game in xG terms, the key factor to watch will be who handles the pressure better in both penalty areas – a single moment of composure or a defensive lapse could decide a tight, nervous contest.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel