Serie A 2025-2026: Cagliari vs Lazio Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Cagliari

Home Team
32%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
45%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 24.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Cagliari L L W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 0)

Lazio L D W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.18
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.19
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are slight favourites here, with a 45.0% chance of taking all three points away to Cagliari, compared with a 32.0% probability for the hosts and a 22.0% chance of a draw. Lazio arrive as 9th in Serie A on 33 points, while Cagliari sit 13th with 28 points and looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle. The model leans towards a tight Lazio win combined with an under 2.5 goals prediction, with only a 46.0% chance of the game going over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Cagliari come into this with a mixed recent run: a heavy 4-0 home win over Verona was sandwiched between two 0-2 defeats against Lecce and Roma. That pattern underlines their inconsistency – capable of an explosive attacking display one week, then drawing a blank the next. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with 1.028 expected goals (xG) created and 1.184 xG conceded per game, plus two clean sheets, suggesting a slightly better defensive platform than their league position might imply. Lazio’s last three results are equally up and down: a 3-2 home win over Genoa, a brave 2-2 draw away at Juventus, and a 0-2 home defeat to Atalanta. They’ve shown they can both trouble strong opponents and also be punished when they lose control of games. Across their last five, they average 1.0 goal scored and just 0.6 conceded, backed by 0.958 xG for and 1.186 xG against, which points to low-scoring, finely balanced contests. Their slightly tighter defence and higher league standing give them a narrow edge going into this match.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 54.0% implied likelihood (given only 46.0% for over), expecting a cagey encounter. Two of Cagliari’s last three matches have stayed under 2.5 goals (0-2 vs Lecce, 0-2 vs Roma), with only the 4-0 Verona win going over. Lazio have gone over 2.5 in two of their last three (3-2 vs Genoa, 2-2 vs Juventus) but their five-game averages of 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, plus both teams posting xG around the 1.0 mark, support a cautious over 2.5 prediction stance and make an under 2.5 call more reasonable.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s expected shots figure is 24.18, pointing to a game with a reasonable but not extreme amount of goalmouth action. Cagliari’s last three have seen them take 11, 3 and 13 shots, while facing 13, 15 and 9, showing they can be either restricted or fairly proactive depending on the opponent. Lazio have attempted 12, 9 and 14 shots in their last three, but have also faced heavy volumes at times (34 shots conceded against Juventus). Given both teams’ xG averages around 1.0, the shots prediction around 24 total efforts fits a match where chances are created but not constantly.

Final Prediction

Lazio’s higher league position, slightly stronger defensive numbers, and marginally higher win probability give them the edge, even away from home. Cagliari’s inconsistency means their best level can trouble anyone, but their recent 0-2 defeats show how quickly things can unravel. A key factor to watch will be which midfield takes control early; if Lazio can impose themselves and keep the game tight, their efficiency in low-scoring matches could be decisive.

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