Serie A 2025-2026: Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction - 16 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Cagliari

Home Team
68%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
15%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Shots: 22.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Cagliari L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 3)

Lecce W L D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.01
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.92
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.65
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Cagliari are favoured to take all three points, with a 68.0% probability of a home win against a Lecce side given just a 15.0% chance, while the draw sits at 17.0%. The model points to a low‑scoring contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction (45.0% for over 2.5, so leaning slightly to the under) and both teams still having a 51.0% chance to score. In the table, Cagliari are 12th on 28 points, while Lecce sit 17th on 21 points and are much closer to the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Cagliari come into this clash with momentum: two wins from their last three, including a dominant 4-0 home victory over Verona and a gritty 2-1 away success at Fiorentina. Even in defeat to Roma (0-2 away), they were up against one of the league’s stronger sides. Their recent averages back up this upswing: 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game over the last five matches, with 1.014 expected goals (xG) created and 0.922 xG conceded. Two clean sheets in that run underline a more solid defensive platform. Lecce, by contrast, remain fragile despite a vital 2-1 home win over Udinese. That result was preceded by a 0-1 defeat at Torino and a 0-0 home draw with Lazio, showing how thin their attacking margin is. Across the last five games they average just 0.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with only 0.536 xG created per match and a worrying 2.648 xG conceded, suggesting opponents are regularly carving out good chances. While they have one clean sheet in that period, the pressure on their back line is clearly higher than Cagliari’s.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 outcome, despite a 45.0% probability for over 2.5 goals, and expects a tight, cagey match. From a recent sample, 2 out of Cagliari’s last 3 games went over 2.5 goals (4-0 vs Verona, 2-1 vs Fiorentina), while Lecce have been involved in lower-scoring affairs, with only 1 of their last 3 going over (2-1 vs Udinese, 0-1 vs Torino, 0-0 vs Lazio). Given Cagliari’s modest xG of 1.014 for and 0.922 against, and Lecce’s low scoring output but high xG conceded, the over 2.5 prediction is less convincing than the under 2.5 angle in what could be a narrow home win.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 22.66 expected shots in total, in line with two mid-table sides fighting for safety. Cagliari’s last three matches saw shot counts of 3-15, 13-9 and 10-15, indicating they’re comfortable soaking pressure and then striking when on top. Lecce have registered 16, 14 and 15 shots in their last three, while allowing 6, 17 and 6, a profile that fits the expected shots figure and tallies with their xG numbers: they allow a lot of attempts, even if not all are high quality.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s stronger recent form, tighter defence, and more balanced xG profile give them a clear edge at home over a Lecce side still struggling to create chances consistently. If Cagliari can impose their structure and limit the big chances that Lecce concede on average, their 68.0% win probability looks justified. A key factor to watch will be whether Lecce’s high corner and shot volumes can finally be converted into goals, or if Cagliari’s improved back line keeps them at arm’s length.

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